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12 min read December 2023

2023.50 - Hocus pocus

TLDR: It's a disgraceful joke that in our age of supposedly advanced technology, Monetary Policy is still a function of primitive, obscure pronouncements by "wise, powerful elders". Let us drag them kicking and screaming into the 21st Century
2023.50 - Hocus pocus

IMHO

Did Powell "Pivot" last week?

For those of you just tuning in, the —widely expected— "Fed Pivot" generally means they are switching from a "tightening stance" to a "loosening stance" this could involve actions like making credit cheaper (lowering rates) or, everyone's favorite trick, the exuberant creation of new money out of thin air. A pivot would be expected to cause a rally in stocks, BTC and other "risk-on" assets.

Definitely, maybe, not really, depending on who you ask at the Fed. They may have been talking about discussing a pivot depending on the data or, you know, not depending on it.

It will be unbelievable to our descendants, that this was the process through which markets attempted to forecast and understand monetary policy for the global reserve currency.

The high-priests at The Fed make a few (mostly unintelligible) utterances and the markets sift through them like thrown chicken bones trying to extract meaning from their vague and now contradictory answers.

This is all hocus-pocus bullshit.

They will do everything in their power to kick-the impending recession down the road until after elections.

The optics of the US debt problem are being carefully managed. For example they made an effort for the latest Bond auction to go very smoothly, after the previous (rather horrible) one

As US debt "hockey-sticks" Yellen says investors have "no reason to feel nervous about US debt". The audacity.

I think investors have at least 1.7 Trillion reasons to be worried, seeing how there doesn't seem to be any plans to solve the deficit.

And businesses that made sense at 0% rates don't necessarily make sense now.

Here are a few examples:

Meanwhile it's worth looking at Bitcoin's performance in countries that don't enjoy the privileges of printing the global reserve currency

Don't be hypnotized by the hocus-pocus. Choose a money grounded in math and energy, learn how to safeguard it and leave the witchcraft to the Fed.

Bitcoin News

Legend

This week marked the 13th year of Satoshi's disappearance. Gratitude.

Narratives

Larry Fink has changed his tune on Bitcoin. You are not ready for the marketting blitz that will be unleashed once the ETFs are approved.

For some reason, Larry gives me the same vibes as this dude (great movie BTW)

Green

The media is starting to acknowledge Bitcoin as "green"

Expect this to intensify as well.

New Rules

FASB has finally released the new accounting rules, which means companies will be able to begin pproactively adopt them next year. This is removes a very significant source of friction to institutional adoption, our hat goes off to Gigachad Michael Saylor who has been championing this change.

Under Attack

Elizabeth Warrenis pushing for a bill to completely neuter Bitcoin and Krypto, (seems more appropriate to spell it like Kryptonite, )

The bill would be horrible new for US citizen. While its true that Warren has an almost perfect record of being completely unable to get legislation passed we should not just shrug it off. After all who know what corrupt alliances —besides the obvious one with big banks— might be at play.

If you think the above statement is paranoid then you must believe someone with ESP knew exactly when to short BTC before the proposed bill was announced.

Enemy Action

Bitcoin's block space has been really full lately, causing fees to skyrocket.

What's driving this? Mostly regarded speculators who are filling up the blockspace with shitcoins and cryptodickbutts

If you want to understand what exactly is going on with these space-hogging transactions —most of which are surprisingly not JPGs— Mononaut explains here:

I don't necessarily mind idiots spending their money on high fees (my mining clients are happy), and am almost tempted to cheer them on, but…

Some of what they're doing is causing permanent bloat to the UTXO set, and that is not groovy.

It's not the end of Bitcoin, I expect this will eventually die out, but a good reminder that any possible weakness or flaw will be attacked, we should remain mindful and keep studying

Security Holes

Reminder that KYC policies are not just useless but actually dangerous

"Crypto" News

The jokes often write themselves

Cutting Line

The IRS is cutting to the front of the line to sponge up any salvaged assets frpm FTX. F*ck the customers, Uncle Sam wants his first.

BTE - Big Tether Energy

Tether got a yuuuuge shoutout from the CEO of the venerable, 70+ year-old financial firm Cantor Fitzgerald, who said he manages over $90 Billion in treasuries for them. Tether Truthers in disbelief.

JPM

Jamie Dimon, who's supported Ethereum since before it was founded, is fortifying hisKrypto team because he knows he can't shut Bitcoin down.

Speaking of Ethereum, ex-developer is not a fan.

Clever Harvest

This is thinking outside the box.

Everything Wrong

Ledger has been on a bad, bad roll lately. Latest was a web version of their wallet could drain your funds.

Seems the perpetrator was an ex-employee who left his footprints, fingerprints, saliva and a sperm sample at the scene of the crime

and finally proceeded to move the funds to Tether, and got them frozen.

Fiat News

Indicators

As the stock market keeps hitting record highs, let's do two check-ins with the real economy:

Car Ownership not looking great, with the majority of people owing more than their car is worth.

Residential Real Estate - San Francisco edition. These guys lost a bit more than $20k per year in home equity.

It's certainly not all gloom-and doom but it's absolutely not as rosy as they want to pretend it is.

Voodoo Accounting

There are many ways of producing "happy numbers", do not confuse these with signs of market health.

Oracle Out

Seems someone is preparing to scoop up some bargains. Just need the blood to start running in the streets.

Devalued

President Milei devalued the Argentinian Peso by 54% but the official value was not taken seriously by anyone. We'll be watching Argentina with interest.

Dystopian News

Everyone Knew

This is one of those interesting, "everybody has an anecdote of this" topics. Are our phones "spying" on us? A lot of us have felt "yes", the industry has always sworn "no" but this marketing company seems to be disproving that.

It's Been Real

I hope you were already aware, but thins is doubly true now: You cannot trust anything you hear or see on a screen.

The Simps

Digital Waifus for everyone coming soon. Oh boy.

Price News

BTC Surfing

Price tried to jump again before the Board ($39.2k) could catch up to it and it couldn't find a perch.

Dip Fishing

The pivot whipsaw pushed Bitcoin all the way to $44k but it was rejected and is now battling in the $42k level.

Calm Chart

December is Christmas Tree Green

Published by:

₿ Coach

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