2024.01 - Wave

IMHO
The overall sentiment on Bitcoin Twitter could be classified as "insanely bullish" in a range between batshit insane and "jacked to the tits" levels.
It's been a brutal bear market and there are good reasons to be bullish, the most obvious one being the seemingly imminent ETF.
As someone who used to spend all day every day selling ETFs and other financial products to traditional money managers of all shapes and sizes, I can promise you one thing
— Caitlin Cook 👁️👄👁️ (✖️,✖️) (@DeadCaitBounce) January 4, 2024
Even if bullish, most of you are drastically underestimating the long-run impact of crypto ETF approvals
"…most people in the world want a very modest allocation to crypto for the possible upside potential it has" —Caitlin Cook
Rumors are, multiple instances of the much balihooed spot Bitcoin ETF may be approved as you're reading this with aims of launching later in the week.
🚨BREAKING:
— Daily Bitcoin News (@DailyBTCNews_) January 7, 2024
Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, expects #Bitcoin spot ETFs to launch on January 11th 👀 pic.twitter.com/Zo7IldbIE2
A fake rumor of the ETFs being denied gave the market an excuse to dump, liquidating over $500m in leveraged long positions.
GF just dumped me. 😉
— Ben Justman🍷 (@BenJustman) January 3, 2024
It was a good run fellas! #Bitcoin https://t.co/rpoDl6RcSS
It's a fascinating moment to be in this space. As you may know, interest in Bitcoin comes in waves. A new wave is headed this way, but is not quite here yet (try to convince your no-coiner friends this is the best time to buy and see what happens)
Even the "Pros", who are willing to speculate in Bitcoin still don't get it (more on this below).
Steve Weiss: "I don't believe in #Bitcoin. I still see no use case other than speculation"
— Bitcoin News (@BitcoinNewsCom) January 2, 2024
Weiss sold half his position of #Bitcoin on Friday before the run-up because he believes the ETF news is priced in 🤦♂️ pic.twitter.com/iYpaIp9Cm8
So, let's get the obvious out of the way, yes Bitcoin will probably zig-zag its way up in face-melting rallies, congratulations if you are already here and holding sats. May your family remember you as the First of Your Name.
The full impact of the ETFs on Bitcoin —beyond pumping our bags— remains to be seen. One large concern is that the ETFs will fractionally reserve Bitcoin (produce more paper Bitcoin than the real Bitcoin they hold). The rules are this is not allowed to happen, we'll see what really says.
Some BS flying around, so for those that don't know:
— Alistair Milne (@alistairmilne) December 30, 2023
- spot ETFs are legally obliged to invest net inflows in Bitcoin, which will be held by a custodian, fully audited, etc.
- ETF providers are 'seeding' their ETFs by having cash on the exchange/s ready to buy when inflows occur…
Another big, valid concern is the concentration of custody —Coinbase will be custodian for the majority of ETFs. This is not healthy as it generates a massive honeypot for thieves and governments (did I just repeat myself?)
ETF pro: massive influx of capital drawing global savings into an inflation resistant store of value.
— Vijay Boyapati (@real_vijay) January 6, 2024
ETF con: increase of custodial concentration risk (the main reason why gold became vulnerable to State attack)
We must work to mitigate the latter risk as much as possible. pic.twitter.com/Wom003SuTw
This should not be a huge concern for those of you holding your own keys.
Speaking of keys, Fred Krueger wrote a piece (then turned it into a clip) which is worth 2.5 minutes of your time:
I made my manifesto into a short movie. pic.twitter.com/3ZGgooVing
— Fred Krueger (@dotkrueger) January 7, 2024
His main point is ETFs are easier and more convenient than full custody, hence most people will opt for them.
He's definitely not wrong on most people choosing convenience without hesitation but since you are here, I think it's worth digging a little deeper into his arguments because —and this the most interesting part of this moment— you are about to witness society being re-programmed. The new wave of entrants to Bitcoin will not just decide to be curious about it (like you and I did) they will be actively pushed towards the asset by the wealthiest institutions on the planet.
Your friends, family and ex-girlfriends will switch from "Bitcoin Bad" to "Bitcoin Good", BUT they will not be thinking of Bitcoin, but rather Bitcoin™ (h/t to Ben Hunt)
Bitcoin™ is a hygienic, convenient, accessible (through sanctioned KYC'd brokerages of course) product that will eliminate the difficult and annoying bits of Bitcoin ownership and sit comfortably alongside the rest of your portfolio. Just a phone call or a fax away!
I'm not against the ETFs (and will be grateful for them pump they'll bring). I acknowledge most people will "get their Bitcoin toes wet" through an ETF because it WILL be a lot easier. This is not a bad first step, but it will likely grow into a bad habit.
"Why learn how to drive or own a car? Just use Uber"
Yes, Uber does bring many of the conveniences of car ownership and takes away the multiple pains of ownership, but it makes you dependent on a "trusted" 3rd party, which is not a huge deal until you find yourself trapped in an emergency because you don't have a car or know how to drive.
This next wave of Bitcoiners will probably be huge, but they will be buying a product with the sovereignty abstracted out of it.
Enjoy the pump, but don't forget why you're here. Stay sovereign.

Bitcoin News
Fifteen
Bitcoin's Genesis Block —the initial block that launched Bitcoin into existence— turned 15 years old on Jan 3rd.
On January 3, 2009, Satoshi Nakamoto instantiated the #bitcoin network by mining the genesis block. In this singular act, he turned idea into reality, and set human history on a course more powerful and optimistic than the timeline set course by the incumbent banking hegemony. https://t.co/Dh7XkP8jeV pic.twitter.com/Cj6VWZuy3e
— Bitstein (@bitstein) January 3, 2024
Speaking of Satoshi, not sure why, but someone sent him a little tip last week:
someone just tipped Satoshi 26.9 BTC 😳
— mononaut (tx/acc) (@mononautical) January 5, 2024
the destination of this transaction, 1A1zP1eP5QGefi2DMPTfTL5SLmv7DivfNa, is the P2PKH address corresponding to the public key which received the genesis block reward.https://t.co/6gthD2fLWk
h/t @__B__T__C__ pic.twitter.com/V3ZI9ekLUO
On Your Marks
Prepare for an onslaught of competitions as the ETFs prepare to launch.
One that's already started is for Bitcoin-positive ads, these launch campaigns are going to be the Super-Bowl equivalent for regular ads, should be fun.
A word to the wise, from a man of few words. #bitcoinisinteresting https://t.co/wantGiAIqJ pic.twitter.com/x5MPbElEev
— Bitwise (@BitwiseInvest) December 18, 2023
Another race that already started is the race for low fees. It was kicked off by Fidelity, then BlackRock and Ark underbid them.
Fidelity's S-1 in as wow, it included its fee which will be 0.39%, by far lowest so far, also names Jane Street as AP. Fidelity is officially ready to party. pic.twitter.com/Taq32IGB0L
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) December 29, 2023
The race to appeal to bitcoiner sensibilities has also started…
🚀 Big move by @vaneck_us for #Bitcoin! Upon ETF approval, they'll allocate 5% of their Spot Bitcoin ETF profits to support Bitcoin Core developers over ten years, kickstarting with a $10K donation to @bitcoinbrink 🚀#BTC #ETF https://t.co/NZr6NfaXlR
— BTC Times (@btc) January 5, 2024
Enjoy the launch when it comes, it should be memorable.
What They Do
JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon trash-talks Bitcoin every chance he gets. Doesn't mean he's not going to get his dirty little hands on it. It says something about an asset when even its most outspoken critics get in line to buy some.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 BlackRock officially names JP Morgan and Jane Street as authorized participants for it's spot #Bitcoin ETF. pic.twitter.com/PGzlYSU4vv
— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) December 29, 2023
Aqua
A new wallet was released by Jan 3 —the team working to orange-pill nation states, I will be paying with is this week and will report back.
— Samson Mow (@Excellion) January 3, 2024
Gaddamit
Inverse Cramer strikes again. Just after Cramer says something good about Bitcoin price tanked, it's rather impressive really (price has now recovered).
JUST IN: Jim Cramer says you can't kill #Bitcoin and it's here to stay. pic.twitter.com/wYKrDqsfQm
— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) January 2, 2024
Satoshi
Hal Finney was the quintessential Bitcoin pioneer (and the recipient of the first-ever Bitcoin transaction). So much so, that many have speculated he may have been the real Satoshi Nakamoto.
In this interview, Hal's wife Fran opens up about how negative this speculation was for Hal near the end of his life.
"It was a bad end to his life. I will always resent that."
— Natalie Brunell ⚡️ (@natbrunell) January 5, 2024
If you are someone who once thought/thinks Hal Finney may be Satoshi Nakamoto, it's worth taking a few minutes to watch this powerful clip of @franfinney opening up about what those claims have done to their family. Her… pic.twitter.com/ywG11ef68O
Electrifying
The fact Bitcoin mining makes it easier to kick-start electrification projects is not priced in.
Electrification is a prerequisite for prosperity. China electrifying the global South changes the future distribution of income and wealth more than all the $307 trillion of accumulated global debt. https://t.co/23KS9m6lrm pic.twitter.com/cfIJb7tclS
— Kathleen Tyson (@Kathleen_Tyson_) January 4, 2024
Halal
Bitcoin has been declared acceptable under Islam (I believe trading is still considered haram)
NEW: 90 year-old Saudi Salafic cleric writes a Fatwa deeming #Bitcoin acceptable under Islam 👀 pic.twitter.com/DNGduIuMAm
— Bitcoin News (@BitcoinNewsCom) December 27, 2023
Blockheads
Ever since ordinals appeared, there's been a battle for Bitcoin's blockspace —which is a scarce good. One mining pool, Ocean, has brought these concerns to the fore by pointing out how centralized the formation of new blocks is and offering its members three alternative block templates to subscribe to, two of them weeding out most non-standard transactions.
The discussions have been informative and are yet to be resolved, but it does seem clear that much of the recent congestion (and high transaction fees) have been caused by the minting / trading of shitcoins (BRC tokens) on top of Bitcoin.
So you're concerned about maximizing fee revenue and unconcerned about this? pic.twitter.com/AULUYY4v5T
— Mechanic #FixTheFilters (@GrassFedBitcoin) December 31, 2023

"Crypto" News
"Crypto" is Kryptonite for savings
Centralized-er
Vitalik dropped Ethereum's RoadMap again, and it does not disappoint. "The Merge", The Surge", "The Scourge", "The Verge", "The Purge" and "The Splurge" remain actual names of Ethereum's development stages.
By popular demand, an updated roadmap diagram for 2023! pic.twitter.com/oxo58A2KuG
— vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) December 30, 2023
His comments are filled with awe-inspiring gems such as this:
VDFs have been shrunk to reflect a temporary reduced emphasis, due to cryptographic weaknesses in existing constructions —Vitalik
The incomprehensible language should inspire you to place your complete trust on the Wise Leader Who Has Everything Figured Out™
The roadmap update came on the tail of a proposal to raise the minimum stakes for validators (pretend-miners) to a cool $1 Million, because f*ck the brokie plebs amirite?
🚨 JUST IN: Vitalik Buterin proposes scaling solution for Ethereum which would raise the min deposit for validtors to 4096 ETH (~$1 million) 😮 pic.twitter.com/o7G2O5FUXX
— Bitcoin News (@BitcoinNewsCom) December 29, 2023
Best I Can Do
FTX is proposing a 61% haircut to its ex-customers for being trusting rubes.
JUST IN: FTX submits a proposal to reimburse customers for their #Bitcoin at the rate of $16,871 per coin approx 61% lower than the current price
— Simply Bitcoin (@SimplyBitcoinTV) December 28, 2023
Nacho 🔑 Nacho 🧀 pic.twitter.com/Sja0Aj1ycF

Fiat News
Birthdays
Bitcoin is not the only currency that had a birthday. The Euro —which over its lifetime has lost 91% of its value vs gold— turned 25 one week ago. Wonder how much longer before its replaced by a CBDC?
Everyone knows that Bitcoin has turned 15 years old today, but did you know the Euro just turned 25 years old on Monday?🇪🇺
— The ₿itcoin Times (@TimelessBitcoin) January 3, 2024
🚨There's a serious reason why the Euro is hurtling towards a CBDC, & it's not to help you.
🧵Which way Western man?👇
1/ pic.twitter.com/G9J62SVs11
ATH
The US National Debt is on an absolute tear. Not only at an All-Time-High but accelerating rapidly (55% increase in the last 5 years).
US National Debt just hit $34 Trillion
— WealthSquad Chris (@CJ_Johnson17th) January 3, 2024
The more debt we have the less your money becomes
Here’s what a trillion dollars looks like pic.twitter.com/8YKtcQ1TJs
Hot Wheels
Forget Beetcoin guys, new cars now have Number-Go-Up technology
Average new car price in the U.S. is $48,000. That’s absolutely mind blowing. I am a pretty lucky guy, but still drive old cars because that’s prices went nuts. I guess people don’t care as much paying on credit and paying monthly installments. Lots of people drive new cars. pic.twitter.com/uyDxLGaavR
— Gabor Gurbacs (@gaborgurbacs) January 1, 2024

Dystopian News
Dindoo Nuffin
The US Government has decided to not investigate itself for corruption. What's $100 Million betwen friends?
Sam Bankman-Fried donated $100 million in stolen customer funds to US politicians.
— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) December 30, 2023
Today, the US Government announced they're dropping six charges against SBF and will not prosecute him for a political campaign finance violation. pic.twitter.com/7lOJb8F62i
Whoosh
Picture this, you're enjoying your "complimentary" bag of salted peanuts when a random piece of airplane wall decides to quit 16,000 feet in the air. Alaska Airlines Boeing 737-Max 9 passengers just got to experience that, thankfully no one was killed.
The trains in Atlas Shrugged are making more and more sense each day.
Alaska Airlines Takes Drastic Action: Boeing 737 Max 9 Fleet Grounded Following Terrifying Midair Window Blowout
— SIKAOFFICIAL🦍 (@SIKAOFFICIAL1) January 8, 2024
pic.twitter.com/MKD1St7Fka

Price News
Head Fake
The most recent dip was a timely reminder of why you don't trade Bitcoin —and especially not with leverage. Over $500 million wiped out.
Nearly $652 million, $583 million of which were leveraged longs, was wiped out in just a few hours. This is massive. I can't remember the last time I saw degenerate gamblers killed at this level. Someone lost $14 million in one trade betting on the spot ETF approval. 🤦🏾
— Oliver L. Velez ⚡️ 13%'er Bitcoiner (@olvelez007) January 3, 2024
Think… pic.twitter.com/mEqJo3PkQ1
Bitcoin Surfing
Bitcoin came back to touch the Board ($42k) last week, plenty of headspace above.

Dip Fishing
After shaking out $500 Million in leveraged longs, Bitcoin continued to range close to the $44k level

Calm Chart
December closed in the Green (as did 2023) and January is opening Green as well.

Zen Chart
Each candle in this chart represents a full year. The yearly return is below each candle.
