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12 min read May 2024

Will Bitcoin swing the next presidency?

Not yet in the US, unless Biden fumbles horribly. But being pro-Bitcon as part of a political platform is not going away, and could absolutely become a pivotal point outside the USA
Will Bitcoin swing the next presidency?

IMHO

Last week both chambers of the US Congress, voted to repeal the SEC's unilateral SAB 121 (a rule considered by many as unlawful overreach) which would severely hamper firms wanting to custody crypto-assets and would've prevented US banks from competing in the global crypto custody business.

The repeal vote received strong bipartisan support, which was notable as President Biden promised he would veto a repeal, so the Democrats who voted for the repeal (which included the Democrats majority leader were "breaking ranks".

The ball is in Biden's court now, but it is clear that "crypto" has supporters on both side of the aisle. In the wake of the historic vote, some Senators jostled for position as the most crypto-friendly.

Some bitcoiners (who believe everyting is good for Bitcoin) see this as a win either way. Either Biden vetos and alienates himself from his party and constituency (possibly costing him the election), or he allows it to pass and better rules for crypto-custody are passed.

Trump has already been explicit about being "pro-crypto", let's be clear he really isn't but he's willing to play the part to get the votes.

Here's a good breakdown of if you want more details:

Last week's euphoria even included a proposal to end the Fed from US Representative Thomas Massie. Despite being backed by 22 members of cCongress, I think this has an ice cube's chance in hell of passing, but the sentiment is noteworthy .

It's hard to fathom just how broken down political discourse is, but if you have the stomach for it, this clip will give you a taste:

While politicians are busy shooting themselves in the foot, the economy is in bad shape. The charts below are misleading because Trump printed the money that caused the inflation reflected in Biden's term, but if we ignore the "Red team" vs "Blue team" bullshit we can see the american household is not doing great.

The repercussions of weaponizing the USD against Russia keep rolling in, both in direct, fairly obvious ways…

And in less-direct or obvious ways. Is China weaponizing gold by turning the petro-dollar into petro-gold?

The world's safe-haven asset is no longer an appropriate description for US Treasuries.

And the raw speed at which new debt is being piled on is simply incomprehensible.

Mind you, Bitcoin is far from perfect, and we have some serious issues to sort out.

But it's our best AND ONLY shot at surviving the train wreck that is brewing in the global monetary system.

And no, I don't think Bitcoin issues will determine the next president of the US, but it HAS become one of the leverage points.

It's also worth bearing in mind that the US is not the only country where Bitcoin is now a theme in presidential runs. After El Salvador's success it may become a more common staple than you think.

Bitcoin News

Cheap can be Expensive

Venezuela is cracking down on Bitcoin mining. Will those miners find a home in some politicians ranch? Bet.

Timing it

If you try to time Bitcoin you will miss out.

Indexed

MSTR will be included in the MSCI index which will mean an allocation of passive inflows. Is the S&P 500 next?

Fun fact: MSTR now owns more BTC than the US Government.

All The Power

If you've been anywhere near Bitcoin Twitter last month, you've now heard of the Power Law. I will not attempt to deep dive into it here, I just want to remind you models of this sort appear every cycle. Have fun with it if you want, but don't chug the kool-aid.

All models are wrong, some models are useful

Greener

While I disagree with most of the "green" narrative —because renewables are neither sustainable nor really "green"— it's great to see a growing recognition that Bitcoin mining actually does contribute to healthier power grids.

ETF Roundup

Let's look back at the first few months of the ETFs

Jim Bianco is underwhelmed. On ths institutional side of things, he feels Investment Advisor positions are too small (~ 3% when most ETFs ~35%) and Hedge Fund positions too large (and concentrated in a few players).

On the retail side of things he feels the numbers suggest "degen behavior" meaning there is no sign of a "relentless bid" for these instruments.

He's also concernedthe ETFs will not lead to on-chain adoption but instead keep money inside the tradfi world (I share this concern).

Eric Balchunas has a different take though, he feels the ETFs are doing great for newborns, and backs up the sentiment with numbers:

@WatcherGuru also shared some an interesting comparison with Gold ETFs at launch:

937 financial firms disclosed spot #Bitcoin ETF holdings in Q1 2024. Gold ETFs had just 95 firms invested in its first quarter —@WatcherGuru

The laggard 13F filings revealed several hedge funds as owners:

As well as a couple of surprises: Morgan Stanley (USA's 6th biggest bank) and a pension fund. This is noteworthy because Pension Funds will be natural buyers for BTC once they can see past the short-term volatility.

When will the rest of the "big boys" follow suit? Hunter Horsley believes soon…

Krypto News

"Crypto" can be lethal to your portfolio

Played Stupid Games

Won stupid prizes. Anyone surprised by this is just lazy TBH,

Nah

This week the SEC is expected to pronounce itself on the ETH ETFs. I don't think they'll be approved, we'll see.

Always

WorldCoin —the one where you allowed them to scan your biometrics in exchange for some tokens— was always a scam.

Fiat News

Game Over

It all started after "Roaring Kitty" —who led the assault on GameStop shorts a few years back— broke a 3-year silence by poting this meme on Twitter:

In the following days he kept posting cryptic video clips and the apes roared back into action pushing GameStop up 6X or so and tripping the circuit breaker several times…

All before crashing back down spectacularly

Game On

Also rallying last week was Silver, let's see if Jamie Dimon and friends paper over the rally

Chess vs checkers

Biden decided to impose tariffs on China —despite being against them in the past. Maybe retaliation for China's diminished appetite for USTs?

Meanwhile, China is playing the long game by securing physical resources instead of accumulating paper.

Not to say China is not facing economic challenges. Will their stimulus spill over?

Back in the USA

Against the macro-drama neither banks nor the american consumer are in good shape.

Politicians are making a killing though…

But don't worry, I'm sure they'll find a way to assure you they're not really doing what they're really doing, as is customary.

Dystopian News

No One Spared

Even kids are feeling the sting of inflation. Bloody hell.

"Green" Cars

What's a little child-slavery between eco-minded friends, amirite?

Guilty

A Netherlands court found Tornado Cash developers guilty of actions taken by users of their software.

Speaking of prosecution, the IRS can now come at you for Wrongspeak:

Literally Fixes This

Think for a second of the amount of negative bias you need to have against Bitcoin to decide to smuggle 73kg of gold instead of selling it to buy Bitcoin.

Price News

Bitcoin Surfing

Bitcoin skipped back on top of The Board ($65.4k) last week. This should allow it to catch its breath before the next move.

Dip Fishing

Bitcoin tore through the $62.5k and $65k resistances (turning them into supports) and stopped shy of attacking $69k. Will we see $65k again? Not out of the question considering summer is usually slow.

Calm Chart

May is modestly Green now. Anyone's guess whether it stays green (it would have to dip under $59k to flip red).

Published by:

₿ Coach

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