I refuse to "sell you" on Bitcoin

IMHO

Two weeks ago, an investor guy asked Twitter to "sell him" on Bitcoin. Predictably, it ended with him crying about mean bitcoiners.

To me his phrasing was an immediate red flag (I didn't bother responding).

Let's unpack why, here's how he would have responded to the same question for the stock market (he would have quoted long-term returns):

Using his same approach over Bitcoin's lifespan would reveal it as the single best performing asset in history. Using several shorter timespans would still show it outperforming most everything else.

What sales pitch do you need besides "it will outperform everything in your portfolio in the medium / long term"?

He may have admitted he "didn't know a ton" about Bitcoin but the way he phrased his question revealed an arrogant and lazy attitude.

He's a denier posing as a skeptic (both normal phases in the Bitcoiner journey).

If he were really a skeptic his question would have been: "I don't understand why you believe Bitcoin will continue to outperform as it has."

His unwillingness to recognize Bitcoin's track record suggests hubris.

A few days later he called chart comparison "madness", because it implied BTC could rise to $200-300k in the next year or so. It's healthy to be skeptical of price predictions, but you should be able to verbalize why you're skeptical

To be fair, moving from denier to skeptic is a leap of faith every bitcoiner has had to wrestle with, and one of the "lessons" is you need to humble yourself and admit maybe you were wrong about Bitcoin.

If you're not ready to do that there is no sales pitch that will make it past your defenses.

Once you've accepted maybe you were wrong you need to embark on a personal journey to find out what you were wrong about.

Our entitled finance-bro knows this, but wants someone to give him pre-chewed answers:

…and “endless hours of research” is not an acceptable answer here. Looking for simple and easy.

If he had taken the time to articulate his actual questions, I'm sure he'd have gotten some great answers. But just like you can't lose weight by hiring someone to "diet and exercise for you", you can't hire someone to trust and understand Bitcoin for you.

If you are not yet in Bitcoin you probably have some negative bias towards it.

Last week we saw a perfect example of this in Ohio. Granted, the guy's speech wasn't very good, but the young, tech-savvy audience is not booing at the speech itself, they are booing Bitcoin:

It's ironic that these kids don't understand Bitcoin could be their best chance at escaping the bleak financial landscape their elders have prepared for them.

It would be unfair not to point out the damage caused by the raging dumpster fire that is "crypto" which —for newcomers— is synonymous with Bitcoin.

And "the experts™" are doing their part to keep people ignorant and confused on the topic. One of the reasons it takes so much time to becoma a knowledgeable bitcoiner is because you have to be able to dismantle the BS that will be flung in your direction in an attempt to shake your conviction.

Don't assume they're ignorant. They are betting on you being the ignorant one.

WEF mascot Nuval Harari knows perfectly he's

know exactly what they're doing, assuming you are the ignorant one and probably too lazy to untangle their lies and misrepresentations.

The politicians are just as bad. Trump is neither pro-Bitcoin nor pro-crypto. He's pro saying whatever he needs to say to get elected.

They'll milk the polarization around crypto for all its worth

And it doesn't matter if their proposals run counter to facts, common sense, existing policies or the rule of law.

Thankfully, there is some pushback:

But don't expect them to stand back as you try to gain sovereignty over your wealth, transactions, identity and body.

One of the active battlegrounds today is over your right to financial privacy:

What are you buying?

The war over sovereign money is not over and we may not win every battle, but the cause is worthwhile.

How much would you sell your freedom for? How much would you pay to keep it?

No, that is not an argument that you'd give to a newcomer trying to "sell him on Bitcoin" and yes, we are all rooting for number to go up but once you understand Bitcoin you know price is not the only (or even the main) thing we're fighting for.

If you're reading this, you're in a really small club. Even though most Bitcoiners (myself included) are mortified they don't own enough Bitcoin, it's shocking to see how early we still are: Less than 1 million people own a full Bitcoin and less than 33 Million own any at all.

Are you really going to ask me to pitch you?

Bitcoin News

Fear Not

Yes Bitcoin is volatile and will remain so for a long time. Understanding why will alleviate your fears and help you understand why risk and volatility are not synonymous.

13F

As corporations start filing their 13F forms, we get to find out some of the corporations now holding BTC ETF shares. So far they include a lot of smaller financial advisors and a few well-known names:

• Hightower Advisors ($68 Million)
• Buckingham Wealth ($34 Million)
• Rubric Capital Management ($60 Million)
• BraceBridge Capital ($450 Million)
• US Bank ($14 million)
• PNC Bank ($10 Million)

All things considered, the ETFs are doing well, and it most big corps are not allocating yet.

Waste to Profit

How long before all producers realize they don't have to waste any stranded energy at all?

Changing Tune

It's interesting to see Fred, who recently emerged on Twitter as a raging ETF bull is now discovering and promoting the virtues of cold storage. Props to him.

Krypto News

"Crypto" can be lethal to your portfolio

Social Hacking

It's worth listening to this unplanned interview with a young guy who robs crypto holders for fun and profit

No One Cared

Remember how ETHeRiUm was going to become "uLtRaSoUnD money" by going deflationary? Well that clearly didn't work to pump their bags so they've changed their monetary policy yet again. These are not serious people.

Couldn't Make it There

NY is a tough jurisdiction for crypto players. Kraken just tapped out.

Fiat News

Rest in Peace

Mathematical genius and investment legend Jim Simons have passed away. He was the most successful investor you've probably never heard of. I recommmend listening to him for a few minutes

Mind the Gap

The financial health of the US consumer is bad and worsening. No savings and growing credit card debt (among the most expensive types) is a toxic cocktail.

Banks

Wish I could say banks are in much better health than consumers, but a quick look at this chart suggests otherwise. There's not a lot of noise around it but the Banking crisis that started in 2023 (remember when they closed several banks in rapid succession?) was not really fixed.

It's being papered over with more and more debt.

Speaking of banks and bailouts, the recent interventions by Bank of Japan did not have a lot of staying power. The US is already stepping in…

But they don't really want to save the Yen as much as they want to prevent Japan from needing to dump a metric ton of US Treasuries on the market (which would make it hard for the US government to issue all the new debt it needs to finance itself).

Retvrn

Central banks continue to buy gold at an accelerated pace. The tectonic plates of the global economy are shifting slowly.

This price divergence between spot gold and gold ETFs suggest something about the gold market's fundamentals is changing.

Going and going…

Every week for months now there's news of some commercial building(s) selling off with outrageous discounts.

Takeaway

Don't believe the talking heads. Do a gut check about what you see in your business, at the grocery store, in your neighborhood… Do you feel the economy is strong?

Dystopian News

Shielded

The best privacy is baked into a system deep enough that no amount of coercion can expose your data.

The Cloud

Is just someone else's computer. Do you own copies of your important data?

Price News

Bitcoin Surfing

Bitcoin still below The Board ($65k) crawling sideways and slightly downward. I don't expect big moves unless we have a macro surprise.

Dip Fishing

After shooting for $65k Bitcoin bounced off the resistance and slid down to the in the $60k range, which we could well see again. If something causes price to break down we may get close to $56k again.

Calm Chart

May is now modestly green, but it's unclear whether it'll flip red or not.