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11 min read March 2024

2024.10 - Broken

TLDR: The previous All-time-high has been broken, price discovery begins. None of us are ready for the ride ahead. If you are reading this, you were early. Keep stacking and hodl on tight!
2024.10 - Broken

IMHO

You wouldn't know it unless you're already a Bitcoinerd, but BTC started bouncing against new All-Time Highs around the world last week, before decisively shattering the $70k resistance this morning.

Bear in mind BTC had never broken an ATH before a halving before.

One of the biggest, most obvious drivers of the rally has been the HUGE volume driven by the new ETFs

But if you think it's all going to be up-only from here you'd be dead wrong. That's simply not how Bitcoin works.

In one of the most beautiful examples of why one does not trade BTC in recent memory, last week price made a +$5k -$4.5k roundtrip in 2 days, liquidating both the shorts and the longs.

In its rise it's now surpassed the Pound Sterling and as of this moment, Silver.

Warming Up

It's worth taking a moment to reflect on what's driving this demand for the ETFs

Larry is not the most articulate spokesperson for Bitcoin, but he's doing his best (notice his "no comment" on the state of the US economy).

The point here is not to make fun of Larry, it's understanding newcomers are not buying because of brilliant new arguments, they're buying based on the simplest, oldest, most basic arguments because Larry is mouthing them. The reason this matters if they choose to grow their understanding they're likely to want to buy more.

Remember, the ETFs are not just big, they are accelerating.

Funny part is, it seems the biggest players haven't even started buying yet.

The smaller, more agile players are the ones sucking up coins. The big boys are still grinding their due diligence gears (this is your cue to stack harder).

Here's an example of a "small player" being orange-pilled. The Blyth Fund is a small student-run portion of the Stanford Endowment. This is still in the training-wheels phase

Here's a couple of billionaires thinking it through:

And another billionaire (Bill Ackman) trying to work backwards from the "buy Bitcoin" conclusion without having put in the work to understand it:

Bill got schooled on Twitter and (credit to him) took it well. I bet he'll be boning up on his Bitcoin fundamentals.

Here's a big player, working through the process of adding Bitcoin to their list of investable assets.

Mind you , neither all billionaires or institutions are chomping at the bit, far from it. Many still can't see the opportunity in BTC

This is agains a backdrop where some of the "usual suspects" for driving up the price of BTC —like low interest rates and QE— are absent, so this is already different to what we've seen before.

Here are a few other things that will be different this cycle:

  • "Keeping up with the Joneses'" factor — As individuals and companies watch their peers jump on the BTC train, they'll be more pressured to develop well-reasoned arguments for being pro or anti Bitcoin
  • Macro deterioration — Things on the macro side are not significantly better. It's impossible to say which snowflake wil trigger an avalanche, but there's no shortage of snowflakes.

A big macro event next week will be the end of the BFTP program, which allowed to pretend their underwater bonds were not a huge deal

And there's also the ongoing drain on the Reverse Repo, which has been used to "cushion the blow" of tightening by the Fed

What happens when it bottoms out? Liquidity gets tighter. What does that mean for BTC? We'll have to wait and see.

If you're just getting started, don't be this guy:

It will be a bumpy ride, but we're going higher. Models will be broken, brains blown, faces melted (see Price News section below).

I don't own enough BTC and neither do you (unless you're Saylor, he has plenty), But if you've been stacking/hodling through the brutal bear market, you have my congratulations and respect. Celebrate this moment, You've earned it!

Bitcoin News

Shock

"There are years where nothing happens and there are weeks when years happen." Don't sleep on BTC.

Relentless

The MSTR masterclass continues. Saylor raised $700M and smash bought BTC. What did you do on the weekend?

If MSTR joins the S&P500 (some say its when, not if) that will force its inclusion in a bunch of indexes and pump its price even further, not that its slacking.

Projection

Remember this one next time you hear a politician bad-mouthing Bitcoin.

Coming Soon

An exciting new hardware wallet is coming to the market soon. Self-custody is essential to proper ownership of Bitcoin, we'll keep our eyes peeled for this one.

Toys

A look at the amount of energy devoted to securing other chains reveals them for what they are.

Catchup

Seems the UK is working to have its own BTC ETF

Krypto News

"Crypto" can be lethal to your portfolio

Crickets

Just learned that Ethereum will undergo a major hardfork this Wednesday. After learning one of the big new features will be "proto dank-sharding" I've decided to dedicate zero-minutes to researching the meaning of this.

Levels

There are scammers and there is Richard Heart. Levels to this game.

CringETH

This bro, who was completely unknown to me, is suddenly all over my feed this week. His horrible takes and fake "flexes" are the embodiment of "crypto" cringe.

Fiat News

Talk about Bull

Did Barron's just call the top? It's one thing to say the market will keep rising (which it very well might), it's another to credit "strong economic growth" which is absolute bull.

Rent

Home ownership is fast receding into the distance as a realistic goal for most.

Magnificent

Nvidia —the company with the 4th largest Market Cap in the world— has been bouncing up and down lately among accusations of "channel stuffing" (one way of cooking the books)

The entire sector is running red-hot. Will history rhyme?

Baldfaced

Speaking of cooking the books, it seems the rosy employment numbers have been consistently inflated (and subsequently revised)

and whatever real job-growth has occured has been largely driven by immigrants

Dystopian News

Tricky

This is a new (for me) variant on "shrinkflation". Same amount, different format, more than double the price. Love the cleverness.

Deadliest Ever

Who'd have thought that this modest looking gun would be the deadliest weapon ever? Don't assume we can foresee the impact of our tools.

Price News

Woa

I have to admit, I had never run these numbers. If history rhymes, this means BTC above $140k before end of June, possibly before April.

Bitcoin Surfing

BTC just crossed into new territory. Buckle your seatbelts

Dip Fishing

After baning its head around the $69k mark, price broke the resistance with conviction. Yes we could dump back down if something big breaks but higher is the main dish on the menu at the moment.

Calm Chart

March sitting pretty in green. It'd take a major shock (which is not unthinkable given Macro environment) to push us into red.

Published by:

₿ Coach

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