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14 min read March 2024

2024.11 - Sayling

TLDR: Saylor is winning so hard he's even pissing off Bitcoiners. He deserves it, simple as. I'm not saying "buy MSTR here", I'm definitely saying don't bet against Saylor.
2024.11 - Sayling

IMHO:

It seems Bitcoiners aren't happy unless they disagree vehemently over something.

The ETFs replaced ordinals/JPGs as the topic du jour, but last week it was Microstrategy's (MSTR) turn.

Disclaimer: I bought a few shares of MSTR back in Sep 2020 (after watching Saylor discuss his decision with Pomp) and added a bit more in 2023. It's not a large position but it is up a ridiculous amount, so I'm not pretending to be an objective observer here.

Saylor's Microstrategy was famously the first company to switch from the USD to BTC as their treasury reserve asset.

They stacked with conviction through the bear market, repeatedly using cheap debt to buy more Bitcoin

They have not let up as the bull market starts, stacking relentlessly as they close in on owning a full 1% of the entire BTC supply.

The market has rewarded them with a very rich premium to their BTC holdings, causing controversy over whether this is deserved or not.

One side argues that MSTR "is a shitcoin" while others explain it represents a new market structure to leverage fiat debt in order to accumulate BTC

The argument was already heated when Michael dropped a viral bombshell during an interview as he tried to explain his "no selling" strategy in terms of capital preservation:

People that use fiat currency as a store of value, there's a name for them. We call them "poor".

It's a well-argued point and worth listening to:

But as you might imagine, Twitter had an absolute field day with the quote and the arguing intensified. Meanwhile, Saylor stacked some more.

Here's three arguments I find compelling:

1- The Flywheel effect

If/when another corporation tries to copy MSTR's playbook, they will inevitably increase the value of MSTR's BTC holdings

2- The S&P Effect

As it continues to rise in Market Cap, MSTR could become eligible for inclusion in the S&P —mind you this is not an automatic process and the committee in charge could simply choose not to include it— but IF it does get added at some point, a number of funds will be forced to buy it algorithmically, boosting its price even further.

3- Schrodinger's Stock

Preston points out it's futile to use traditional metrics to value MSTR because they're doing something that's never been done before.

So, is anyone copying MSTR's playbook yet?

As far as we can tell no. But Coinbase's recent debt offering is fueling rumors that they may be thinking of giving it a go (if history rhymes they'll probably use the money to buy shitcoins instead).

At the risk of pointing out the obvious, if you are buying MSTR here you'd better be thinking long-term, given it already carries a very rich premium.

Although arguably, the same could be said about most top-performing stocks at the moment (particularly the "Magnificent 7).

One final key element in all of this is Michael Saylor himself. There is significant "key-man" risk in MSTR as it is unclear anyone would be able to "carry the torch" if Saylor went missing.

But life carries risk and anyone who says different is trying to sell you something. And if you think old "blue chip" stocks, like say Disney, are less risky Michael Saylor has a few words for you:

Me? I bet on the Gigachad years ago, held through a tough winter and am looking forward to seeing what the hell he does next. Whatever it is, I know he'll keep stacking.

You can make fun of Saylor fanbois all you want, but if you're thinking of betting against him I suggest you check out today's Price Action section before you hit BUY on those shorts.

Bitcoin News

Unlevered

Those who think they can get rich using leverage to trade Bitcoin get REKT. Leveraged traders is one of the reasons Bitcoin will remain volatile for the foreseeable future. If you can't deal with this, BTC is not for you.

Still Strong

ETFs are not slowing down.

Over the next few months, corporations who've been buying will need to disclose their positions. We wait with inteerst.

Matt Hougan from Bitwise has been on the road promoting his ETF and he provides some color on what that's been like (in short, strong interest).

And if Patient Capital Management is any hint, allocations of up to 15% could become the norm.

Mostly 100

Some entity, nicknamed "Mr. 100" has been buying 100 BTC per day on most days. On dips he buys more. We now know the demand is coming from South korea, but we don't yet know who's behind the wallet. Some speculate it's a nation state. Sooner or later this will be true.

That's Cold

El Salvador has moved their larger-than-expected BTC stash to cold-storage, as is proper.

Not You

Anyone with two functioning brain cells knew this, but it's nice to see an official veredict. Craig Wright is not the author of the wite paper, nor Satoshi Nakamoto, nor the author of the initial versions of Bitcoin.

NGMI

Dave Ramsey's criticisms on Bitcoin show he has absolutely not done the homework "Ask Warren Buffet" he says.

This is your only remaining edge in Bitcoin, other people's laziness and complacency. Will you take advantage of it?

Ramsey

Out of Pocket

Bitcoin fees are calculated based on the activity of the mempool —the temporary place where transactions "live" before they get added to a a new block.

But some of the JPG people have figured out they can bribe some pool managers by paying them directly instead of adding fees to the transaction the normal way. This is disruptive to fee calculation and has the added "benefit" of allowing a pool to pocket that income directly, without sharing it with the members of their pool.

I hope pools caught doing this get REKT

Moronic

Speaking of mining, the Biden administration is thinking of taxing miners to the tune of 30% using false arguments. The upside of this is passing would be to decentralize mining further as miners flee the US en masse (like they did China).

Krypto News

"Crypto" can be lethal to your portfolio

Woof

It was a matter of time before Elon said something about Doge, triggering a promps pump-and-dump.

Jeezus

Early BTC evanglist Roger Ver (aka "Bitcoin Jesus") is one of many examples of early adopters catching Bitcoin Derangement Syndrome. If you don't know who he is you should study his arc, a warning to us all.

May I have Another?

Remember Dave "I-got-f*cked-so-hard-by-Bitcoin" Portnoy?

Did he commit to learning THE BASICS about Bitcoin?

Of course not, instead he invited the "Choose Rich" cringe-boi to his Podcast. Guy's a glutton for punishment.

One, Two…

Everyone in "krypto" is fawning on Solana because of its ample selection of ret*rded memecoins. Hell, even SBF is shilling it to his guards and prison mates. The FTX liquidators must be salivating at the upcoming rug.

Not So Fast

Will an ETH ETF be approved? Maybe not.

Fiat News

Brrrr

The US unveiled its new 7.3 Trillion budget

Reminder: a Trillion used to be a lot of money.

And if you're wondering who will buy all that debt? —considering appetite for US Treasuries seems to be muted— The Fed has an answer for you "Maybe banks if we tweak the rules a little"

IF US Treasuries are excluded from bank leverage calculations this would essentially allow banks to print money out of thin air to buy Treasuries (with no discenible limit).

This would be a perfect example of "Not QE, but QE". The Fed has many ways to make the printer go Brrrr

Dystopian News

Tiktak

Much as I despise TikTok, this is not the way. With election season coming, this will lead to attempts to ban other platforms, bet.

Boeing

The speed at which Boeing mishap / accident reports have been piling up seems almost farcical, but things took a dark turn when a whistleblower who was testifying against them turned up dead, allegedly a suicide but the facts don't seem to add up.

The market isn't buying the suicide story either.

Be Scanned

Digital IDs will be pushed hard in the near future and you can be sure they will be hard to resist —for example some countries already scan your retinas and fingerprints in order to issue a passport. This will greatly expand governments' abilitiy to monitor, surveil and control its citizens and their movements.

If coupled with a CBDC —which the Fed has denied being interested in— you'd have the ingredients for a dystopian big brother state.

The Fed's claims that it's uninterested in CBDCs are likely just theater, aimed at not producing friction until absolutely necessary.

Keep'm Coming

If you are concerned your tax dollars are not being put to good use in Ukraine you can set those fears aside, you're funding the best people money can buy.

Price News

Need to open by suggesting you don't try to find a "why" behind each dump. Someone always comes up with a reason but only rarely are the narratives true. Back to speculating…

Last week someone mentioned MSTR was being massively shorted.

And apparently one of the funds involved, ahem, got its shorts blown, forcing to liquidate a ton of BTC, depressing price.

Bitcoin Surfing

BTC took a little breather last week, coming back down below $69k after smashing through this previous ATH. The Board ($57.7k) keeps climbing to catch up.

Dip Fishing

After breaking through the previous ATH and climbing up to $73k, price plunged back into the $65k support and bounced back. Currently flirting with $69k again.

Calm Chart

Despite the commotion last week, March remains comfortably green.

Published by:

₿ Coach

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