2024.07 - Late

IMHO

The Bitcoin ETFs keep adding momentum.

Is it the macroeconomic conditions? Possibly, (we'll dive into that in the Fiat News section), one way to explore this question would be: are other hard assets (specifically gold) catching a bid too?

Answer: Not really. It's more of a Bitcoin-only thing.

Exhibit B

Microstrategy —a Bitcoin-proxy which some thought would tank after the ETF approvals— is doing just fine thank you (special thanks to the geniuses shorting it, and getting squeezed right now).

Banks are petitioning the SEC for legal changes that would allow them a bigger slice of those sweet ETF pies.

In summary, Bitcoin ETFs are hot right now, despite some naysayers' whinings

Most "normal" people still couldn't care less and wouldn't touch BTC with a ten-foot pole. I don't expect them to wake up before $100k (some not even then). There's not much that can be done about it. Everyone wakes up at their own pace.

Regrets

The saddest are the lazy skeptics / agnostics who have expressed some interest but have failed to do the homework and are now wallowing in sorrow and regret at having missing the boat.

Dave is worth Millions, there's no reason for him not to buy $10M worth of Bitcoin right now.

Granted, the explanation the Winklevii gave him years ago was horrendous, but he could have anyone in the space hold his hand through the entire process for free. There's no excuse for his laziness.

Compare with previous critics / skeptics have decided to do allow themselves to be curious and have done enough homework that it clicked for them (even if they still find Bitcoiners annoying).

On this note, I highly recommend this podcast between Peter McCormack and Quoth the Raven. It's fun, insightful and full of attitude:

Is this really still a good time? Yes. ETF inflows are just getting started. Most players have not even started their engines, Financial Advisors, to name one example.

How much weight do Financial Advisors have? Quite a bit

And that's the tip of the iceberg. Pensions will not be able to ignore the cost of having ignored Bitcoin the last cycle. Same will be true for other large institutions.

Does this mean up-only from now on?

No. that'll never be the case with Bitcoin. Volatility will be ever-present and drawdowns will continue to punish the uninformed, the half-committed and the short-minded.

Also, I think most people are glossing over the risk implicit in ETF custody (most of it is concentrated at Coinbase). Learn to hold your own.

Remember: Bitcoin is not a "Get rich Quick" scheme. It's a "Don't Fall into Debt Slavery Slowly" scheme and an IOU from a financial institution will protect you about as much as a Nerf gun.

If you feel you've missed the boat, I'll tell you a secret. It ALWAYS feels that way. Either Bitcoin feels way to expensive or it's fallen so much that it feels insane to buy. Short-term price action is like an optical illusion: This is you trying to figure out if this is a good time to buy:

If you want help with allocation strategies you know where to find me.

Keep stacking, we've got a long way to go still.

Bitcoin News

Not Dead

The death of Lightning has been greatly exaggerated. It's true that using it in a non-custodial, self-sovereign way is still not easy to do, which is a huge deal.

Services built on top of Lightning by big players (with fat, liquid channels) are working well though, which is not nothing.

Will self-sovereign Lightning ever become user-friendly or will we come to accept a more centralizing L2?

Drooling a Bit

The new ColdCard signer is now shipping. ColdCard wallets are great —but not user friendly. This new design, with a full keyboard among a slew of other features might change that. It certainly looks like a step in the right direction.

Make Me

Some in the US government want miners to enforce OFAC sanctions, a slippery slope to censoring the network. Expect resistance, but also there will always be miners beyond US jurisdictions happy to mine those transactions.

Epic Troll

Elizabeth Warren's signature was affixed to a certificate honoring Satoshi Nakamoto (a flag was flown too). My understanding is pretty much anyone can pay for this service, but it was a funny troll.

Tio Richy

Ricardo Salinas owns the 7th largest bank in Mexico. Still he advises the public to learn to save in Bitcoin.

Clownbase

Coinbase Commerce —the payment gateway that helps businesses take payments in crypto— will no longer accept Bitcoin payments directly from a self-hosted or non-custodial wallet. Instead payments will have to come from a (fully KYC'd) Coinbase wallet.

This is probably Coinbase bending the knee to regulators and imposing censorship on the network (either that or incompetence). Don't accept this, it's a step in the wort possible direction.

Tulip Mining

This project is simply dripping in delicious irony.

Here's another "cute" mining project: Miner Hut 8 flat-out purchased four natural gas-powered power plants.

Fiat News

Recessive

In the opening (IMHO) section I hinted at a disconnection between stock markets and reality. Let's have a look:

Last week the UK, Germany and Japan officially slipped into recession, joining at least 7 other countries.

Japanese stock market's reaction? a new All-Time High (the first in over 30 years). This is, of course, in nominal terms. If measured in gold the Nikkei is down more than 80% since its previous ATH

So how should we read the euphoria in the US stock market? (particularly the magnificent 7 plus a few AI-related names).

I've expressed concern abut Nvidia, given it's more-than-meteoric rise

And I totally get how AI is the hot topic of the moment, probably the decade, and have no doubts that Nvidia will continue to sell GPUs like crazy, but cases like Super Micro Computer give me serious dot.com flashbacks

And I was very surprised to learn Nvidia may be cooking the books to look even better —which seems idiotic to me considering the stock is already red-hot

Maybe history won't repeat or even rhyme, but I've burnt my fingers on the stove of irrational exhuberance before. Perhaps I'm just getting cranky in my old age but I feel the stock market has disconnected from reality. I know how euphorically some will say "this time it really IS different" but I've seen how this movie ends.

I don't know if Jeff Bezos would agree with me (maybe Saylor orange-pilled him). but I do wonder what he's been dumping his shares for.

Could all those investors be wrong?

a) Yes

b) Most of them are not even making any investment decisions. They are in "set it and forget it" mode and rely on someone else to read the homework assignment.

Luke Gromen had an interesting take on this:

…US policymakers are essentially euthanizing free market price discovery in stocks and active fund management firms in order to finance US fiscal deficits, government spending, and government power. The Soviet-ization of markets that are the pride of capitalist America. —Luke Gromen

Why? Because in order to keep tax receipts high (which they need given the astronomical amounts of debt they're piling on) they need to keep the stock market up:

Stocks are the drivers to marginal US tax receipts, and therefore marginal UST pricing, so stocks falling on a sustained basis will crash bonds, and before long, collapse the banking system and economy. —Luke Gromen

Will the draining of the Reverse Repo (which could be emptied by next month) be the end of the musical chairs as Morgan Stanley suggests?

Monopoly Man

This Central Banker from New Zealand laughs at the brokies who believe in the money they freely print and proceeds to dump on Bitcoin using zero arguments.

Whatflation?

Do you think Bill Maher cares / has any idea of how much a carton of eggs costs? or a house? Of course he doesn't.

Look at him leaning on "ackshually, the numbers say…" with the same assuredness of those who "trust the science" (kudos to Jillian for living in the real world)

Maybe if Maher had kids he'd have more of a clue (and give a shit about something besides himself).

Dystopian News

Interdit

Speaking up against MRNA injections —which have now demonstrably been linked to serious and sometimes lethal risks— could land you in jail for up to 3 years and cost you a €45,000 fine in France.

I sure feel safer now.

X Marks the Spot

WHO Director-General Tedious says you should be terrified about a lethal disease which they have totally not been brewing and will be released when you least expect it.

Price News

Bitcoin Surfing

Bitcoin sprang off the Board ($45.5k) and is trying to stay aloft while The Board catches up to provide some support.

Dip Fishing

Bitcoin blasted through the $50k resistance on its third attempt last week. Has been hanging around the $52k area. My suspicion is that dips would be gobbled up quickly at these levels (don't see it going under $46k), we shall see.

Calm Chart

February even more proudly Green this week, which is great and I don't anticipate that changing this month. It is worth noting however that we have never seen 7 monthly green candles in a row. Remember, Technical Analysis (reading charts) is like the Astrology of finance, not always wrong.