2024.02 - Patience

IMHO
On Tuesday, the SEC finally tweeted the approval for spot BTC ETFs.
…and immediately backpedaled claiming their account was "compromised", triggering a pump and dump and much ridicule on Twitter.
SEC Hack Timeline:
— Walker⚡️ (@WalkerAmerica) January 9, 2024
3:11 — @SECGov tweets all #Bitcoin ETFs are approved
3:26 — @GaryGensler says SEC account was hacked
~3:38 — SEC “regains control” of their account & deletes original tweet
3:42 — SEC tweets they were hacked & have not approved ETFs
Something is fishy… pic.twitter.com/CVHLlY2SdN
On Wednesday the real approval finally came. After a quick pump, price went back down to finish the day flat. On the second day price dump decisively to just above $43k and remained there over the weekend.
Was the ETF launch a dud? Hardly.
As Eric pointed out in a Tweet re: first day trading: "By all metrics: volume, # of trades, flows, media coverage it was smashing success, historical."
— James Lavish (@jameslavish) January 15, 2024
And the volumes in WisdomTree's BTCW, the tiniest of the crew, was larger than 95% of over 500 ETFs launched in the past year.
The new instruments saw $1.4 Billion in inflows (and Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust saw $579 Million in outflows).
Inflows into the 10 new bitcoin ETFs hit +$1.4 billion over 2 days.
— Joe Consorti ⚡ (@JoeConsorti) January 13, 2024
Subtracting GBTC's outflows of -$579m we get a net inflow of +$818.9m into the 10 new vehicles.
People rotating out of GBTC into the others & Grayscale selling BTC are behind the price dump despite the inflows: pic.twitter.com/L29Vp3QecP
So, why the price dump?
It's been hard to find a good, clear explanation but here are some points to consider:
- This was a highly anticipated event, creating "sell the news" pressure
- The ETFs had rough estimates for initial demand and would have had OTC agreements in place to source their initial inventory ahead of time
- The settlement times for ETFs are different to what we're used to with spot trading, there's a several-day lag between cash flowing into an ETF and them having to purchase the BTC
- A lot of GBTC investors had been "locked-in" (some for 10 years) with their investment underperforming Bitcoin, and the ETF finally offered then a way out —by the way, GBTC has a lot of BTC it could unload
All of which is to say: patience.
Price may not pick up for a while, depending on a few factors. There are large pools of BTC (like those recovered from Mt. Gox and the stashes seized by the US government) which may, or not, come into play to help funds build their initial positions. Until that "low-lying fruit" is absorbed, price won't climb, and if the Trad-Fi boys can do anything to make price drop as they accumulate, rest assured they will (the newborn ETFs have already hoovered up around 23,000 BTC with over 11,400 of those going to BlackRock).
The BTC market still needs to absorb the new dynamics the ETF will bring (for example it doesn't trade today because of the holiday). There are also new tax implications and settlement times to consider, as well as permitted trading behavior —apparently the ETF can move between cash and BTC to "buy the dip" opportunistically as long as it settles by a certain time, etc.
The initial inflows to the ETFs come from people who wanted BTC but could not buy it at exchanges for some reason. Given the "speed" of wire transfers they needed to have pre-funded their accounts BEFORE the approval was announced in order to buy last week. If you think about it, the number of people who were chomping to get into Bitcoin but couldn't, was probably not huge.
Through the noise, we should not lose sight of one fact: the doors have been opened for a large new cohort of new Bitcoiners to come onboard.
More importantly, this new cohort has not yet woken up to Bitcoin:
The public has no idea of what's happening. #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/0VbjCGy96f
— Thomas | heyapollo.com (@thomas_fahrer) January 11, 2024
Yes, they will be buying Bitcoin™ instead of Bitcoin. No, they are not in it for the sovereignty, they are in it for the Number-Go-Up (which is fine) and are reasonably content with the current financial system. Fred Krueger makes the point:
Newsflash: Wall Street will be a better marketer of Bitcoin than Bitcoiners.
— Fred Krueger (@dotkrueger) January 14, 2024
The latest ads from BlackRock are case in point.
My generation of wealthy boomers doesn't particularily like tatoo-covered Gen-x ers telling them that the entire financial system needs to be scrapped.…
Like I responded to Fred, BlackRock won't market Bitcoin "better" but it will be impactful because it's BlackRock doing the marketing.
The FAQ is perfect. Short and crisp.
— Fred Krueger (@dotkrueger) January 15, 2024
"Bitcoin is the largest and most liquid cryptocurrency and represents over 50% of the $1.5 trillion cryptocurrency market....As such, bitcoin has a competitive advantage over any would-be challengers, which is why it has not been surpassed." pic.twitter.com/8x4gL8g6Zk
"Larry Fink is not saying anything new about Bitcoin, but he IS Larry Fink"
I'd bet dollars to doughnuts Blackrock's new Bitcoin ad (below) doesn't speak to you if you already own sats and custody your own keys. Well guess what, it's not supposed to. This is aimed at an entirely different audience:
🇺🇸 BlackRock releases new spot #Bitcoin ETF advertisement 👀 pic.twitter.com/bNs6yfyfRq
— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) January 14, 2024
Right now, there's a good chance your buddies still ignore your Bitcoin rants but I expect that will change as the big funds start their marketing engines. It will be fascinating to watch people being "re-programmed" in real-time.
NEW:
— Daily Bitcoin News (@DailyBTCNews_) January 11, 2024
🟠 According to BlackRock, Bitcoin is the best-performing asset class in the world. pic.twitter.com/N8nRqfIpeO
Two Wolves
Not everyone was cheering for the ETFs though, contrast Fidelity —who have a long history of being actively pro-Bitcoin— making efforts to onboard their customers
VERY IMPRESSED.
— Neil Jacobs (@NeilJacobs) January 12, 2024
Fidelity is LIGHT YEARS ahead of Vanguard.
TODAY, they’re calling existing customers already exposed to bitcoin-related securities (like mining stocks, etc.) to address any questions about the Bitcoin ETFs.
That is how you treat customers. #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/hS04YO0IvJ
With Vanguard and other firms actively blocking their clients from accessing the new ETFs because "Bitcoin bad"
“Spot Bitcoin ETFs will not be available for purchase on the Vanguard platform.…[as] these products do not align with ... a well-balanced, long-term investment portfolio." —Vanguard
Vanguard, Citi, Merrill, Edward Jones, UBS are all being reported to not allow clients to trade the ETF
— Steven Lubka ☀️ (@DzambhalaHODL) January 11, 2024
I find their stance hypocritical and disingenuous (given the rest of their funds and track records) but the market will decide if they're right.
The more interesting point is that as the sleeping majority starts waking up to Bitcoin, a steady flow of passive allocation will begin soaking up the available inventory and price will have nowhere to go but up.
Please understand, just as it will not go up immediately, it will also not go up in a straight line. Leveraged trading will make it so that dumps will be more profitable than pumps some of the time.
If you are already in Bitcoin congratulations. All you need is just a little patience.
And keep learning, remember: Now more than ever, Bitcoin is easy to buy but hard to get.
Capybara spa day
— Science girl (@gunsnrosesgirl3) January 15, 2024
pic.twitter.com/jwQzmfOctF
This should be you right now.

Bitcoin News
No Shortcuts
I fully understand how a guy who invests millions for a living is still clueless about Bitcoin. I don't understand why he doesn't get some competent help. (If you're friends with Dave have his people call my people, OK? thx)
Emergency Press Conference - I Keep Getting Face Fucked By Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/lt0keGEAWh
— Dave Portnoy (@stoolpresidente) January 13, 2024
Tounge Lashing
SEC Comissioner Hester Pierce (aka Crypto Mom) gave the SEC a good scolding for the poorly handled process of evaluating and approving the Bitcoin ETF
Commissioner Peirce on the harms caused by dragging out Bitcoin ETF approval for years https://t.co/q42NUQcJyW pic.twitter.com/uxpgveBxHE
— Neeraj K. Agrawal (@NeerajKA) January 10, 2024
BRRR
Valkyre Funds (who sport the best ETF ticker, $BRRR) will be acquired by European investment company Coinshares.
JUST IN: CoinShares exercises option to acquire Valkyrie Funds after spot #Bitcoin ETF approval pic.twitter.com/dAWWfXuIhq
— Bitcoin News (@BitcoinNewsCom) January 12, 2024
You Got This Buddy
Gold outperformed Bitcoin on the day of the ETF launch. Well played boomercoin, well played.
LMAOOO DAY 2 AFTER THE MOST HYPED EVENT IN BITCOIN FOR YEARS, AND - TURNS OUT, IT'S GOLD. GOLD IS PUMPING.
— 🧢🧢LOCKHART (@BrianLockhart) January 12, 2024
I LOVE THIS SPACE. NEVER CHANGE. pic.twitter.com/arYnPZ5ZTw
Incentives
Bitcoin Mining would mitigate the emissions the Biden Administration intends to fine.
Biden Administration to incentivize Oil and Gas companies to mine bitcoin. https://t.co/rAaNcSMIai
— Lyle Pratt (@lylepratt) January 14, 2024
New Star is Born
Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and CNBC contributor Samantha Laduc just posted the floowing "serious question" onTwitter:
If one Bitcoin is sold in units of "Sats," and there are over 2 quadrillion of those, HOW can they claim scarcity, lack of dilution, hedge against inflation/DEBASEMENT.
I thought this was funny, but then I saw her original tweet.
Here’s my attempt to summarize key disagreements btwn #tradfi & #bitcoin-ers
— Samantha LaDuc (@SamanthaLaDuc) January 14, 2024
There is no premium in scarcity, just because it’s limited, but THIS is the major claim that has been offered up by #bitcoin-ers in both the respectful+ disrespectful rebuttals in my very busy feed past… https://t.co/XK8Q1QhMHe
Rather than spending hours and thousands of words rebutting her points I'll recommend you read her tweet carefully and see how many falacies/mistakes you can spot. Your ability to do this is one of the crucial skills to being able to sleep at night while allocating to Bitcoin.

"Crypto" News
The jokes often write themselves
There And Back
BlackRock's Larry Fink praised Bitcoin, essentially comparing it to gold, which was good, but a few short minutes later…
"It is an asset class that protects you." - Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock on #Bitcoinpic.twitter.com/jO1YAj99ju
— Michael Saylor⚡️ (@saylor) January 12, 2024
Larry immediately launched into a rant about tokenization and blockchain straight out of 2007
CEO of BlackRock, Larry Fink, believes we are on the precipice of a financial transformation of all assets, digital and real world.
— The ₿itcoin Therapist (@TheBTCTherapist) January 13, 2024
The #Bitcoin ETF was step one.
He wants to tokenize the entire financial industry to create instantaneous settlements. 🤯pic.twitter.com/OJUTANUSMA
Oh well.

Fiat News
Cubicle wasteland
If you don't think some of the pension fund allocation currently going to commercial real estate wioll move over to BTC, you have not been paying attention.
“America’s offices are emptier than at any point in at least four decades” 🏢
— Dom Bei (@Beiwatch1) January 9, 2024
And there are still pension funds holding commercial real estate with no #Bitcoin due diligence on file 🤔 pic.twitter.com/mZQwkh58O5
Healthy
The magnificent 7 continue to dominate the market
The Magnificent Seven's weighting in the S&P 500 grew from 20% to 28% over the course of 2023, the largest share for any 7 companies in the index on record.
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) January 12, 2024
Video: https://t.co/3AfS3LGxVL pic.twitter.com/QOVsskMCCj
Where to Go?
Money Market Funds are flush with cash (understatement). Will this continue if the Fed cuts rates, as the market expects it to?
Since the Fed started raising interest rates in March 2022, money market funds have seen massive inflows.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) January 14, 2024
Total assets held in money market fund went from $4.5 trillion to $6 trillion in 2 years, a 33% increase.
Now, the Fed is expected to begin cutting interest rates.
With… pic.twitter.com/OaKZPXZeVG
All I can predict is the first half of 2024 will not be boring.
March will be lit:
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 8, 2024
1. Reverse repo ends
2. BTFP expires
3. Fed cuts (allegedly)
4. QT ends (allegedly)

Dystopian News
Davos
Over 2,500 delegates flew over 1,000 private planes to meet at The Global Puppeteering Convention (aka WEF Forum) is set to begin this week at Davos, home of the $43 Hot-dog and some of the finest orgies money can buy.
NEW - Klaus Schwab's World Economic Forum in Davos starts tomorrow. The theme this year is "Rebuilding Trust." pic.twitter.com/RF5J9Irddy
— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) January 14, 2024
I look forward to finding out what disasters they plan on unleashing to "Rebuild Trust" and what lucky pre-teen they'll sign up as their next mascot.
"Rules for thee, but not for me."
— Wide Awake Media (@wideawake_media) January 12, 2024
The mantra of globalist, climate cult con artists. pic.twitter.com/rRSRMR7ctK
Deutschland
As I'm sure you've heard in the news, there will be massive protests in Germany this week led by the farmers, who have now been joined by the train operators and perhaps the firemen.
Do you know why they're protesting? If you don't —given the historic size of the protest— don't you think that's curious?
The biggest protest in the western world since the Berlin Wall and OUR media ignores it.
— Dane (@UltraDane) January 15, 2024
Train operators have now gone on strike for the next three days paralyzing almost all rail traffic in Germany in support of German farmers.
The people are rising up. pic.twitter.com/GTERlnqYyS

Price News
Bitcoin Surfing
Bitcoin jumped and landed back on the Board ($42.4k) where it seems to be regaining its footing.

Dip Fishing
Between the fake launch and the real launch, BTC pumped above $48k to come crashing down before catching support on $42k.
Next big support down is $38k, next big resistance to the upside is $44k Hitting any of the two is possible right now.

Calm Chart
January still barely green, could well flip red as the dust settles on the ETF launch.
