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14 min read Newsletter

The guests are arriving

Slowly but firmly, institutional money is showing up. We are witnessing the first wave of the long-prophesied institutional money taking positions. What comes next will melt faces. Stack hardest.
The guests are arriving

I've been saying an era is about to end for Bitcoin —for the past couple of years, your edge was most people didn't get it but this is would not last forever.

We are officially at the beginning of the end.

Price appreciation and nation-state adoption will likely act like forcing functions for adoption.

This is not a perfect metaphor, but it's a useful one. The concept of a forcing function exists across several different domains and is usually meant to mean:

- an external influence or input that drives or changes a system's behavior
- elements that make it easy to do the right thing or hard to do the wrong thing.

To clarify: neither price appreciation nor nation-state adoption change Bitcoin itself —they're not a forcing function for Bitcoin— but rather they are accelerants for the rate of adoption and position size as more people, institutions and nation states fill compelled to stake an initial claim.

Allow me to illustrate.

Microstrategy is kicking every corporation's ass so utterly they will be forced to stop and make a conscious decision of whether to adopt some part of his playbook —the upcoming Microsoft vote is the first example. Sooner or later every profitable corporation will be forced to have this conversation

A growing number of "small", nimble companies are already waking up to the playbook. Last week Solidion joined Semler Scientific, Metaplanet and a handful of others in deploying a BTC strategy.

The BTC ETFs —the most successful ETFs ever launched— recently stated most of the money they were seeing came from retail investors.

But the latest corporate filings revealed that's no longer the case. Household name financial institutions are taking positions.

Savvy early adopters among them are doubling (and quadrupling) down. The long-hypothesized wave of institutional adoption has undeniably begun.

On the nation-state level most of the world just shrugged when El Salvador adopted Bitcoin. The globalist machinery tried (unsuccessfully) to bully them out of the decision but no one else paid too much attention. Similar thing happened when Bhutan revealed its Bitcoin strategy, mostly crickets.

But as the US gets cozy with Bitcoin —which is very much happening now— it will ignite a new geopolitical arms race.

States are already leading the way.

Regardless of who winds up as Treasury Secretary, the tweet below represents a powerful endorsement for Bitcoin from one of the leading political actors in the US stage (who is personally seriously invested in Bitcoin by the way).

The idea is already in the air…

Narrow Gap

The window hasn't closed yet, there are still pockets of Bitcoin Derangement Syndrome among opinion makers.

Unsurprisingly, Central Banks —whose relevance is diminished by the ongoing survival of Bitcoin— keep pushing their bad takes trying to misinform the public through different-flavored but equally lame strategies.

Australia's Central Bank claims to not understand bitcoin but declares it useless anyway because they didn't make it.

The European Central Bank, which recently published a call-to-arms encouraging people to ask for restrictive legislation, softened the wording slightly after the election. Deliciously, the Euro is down 80% against BTC since the ECBs premature obituary of Bitcoin.

It's understandable Central Banks would oppose that which could kill them.

But what about people like James?

"What the fans still can’t say is what any of it is supposed to be for, or what it actually does. Bitcoin is a thing you buy if you want to make money, duh."

This kind of opinion was wrong but easier to forgive 10 years ago.

But declaring Bitcoin worthless the same week it has became the world's 8th largest asset takes extraordinary levels of hubris and denial.

While I don't understand why people willingly commit reputational suicide, I'm very grateful for posts like James'.

I would have thought it was fairly self-evident that an asset rising to be worth more than all the silver ever mined must have some value beyond speculation.

People like James shout "the market is wrong" but fail to provide good arguments, succeeding only in showing a level of ignorance that should —if they had any common sense— prevent them from publishing public opinions on the subject.

The Bottom Line

Is there speculation in Bitcoin? Absolutely, tons of it.
Does that drive up its price? Up and down, no doubt about it.

But the reason it sustains a high price —unlike shitcoins— is that it actually fills an important need which makes people reluctant to sell it.

A major reason of why people don't want to sell is they've learned a very old lesson. The problem does not lie with this or that currency.
Fiat as a whole is a crappy operating system for money.

Since one of its serious shortcomings is a lack of transparency. It's difficult to tell just how sick the patient is.

For example, the tweets below suggests some Central Banks have much less real gold (the metal they hold in storage) than they have "paper gold" (the number on their balance sheets).

But the system is sufficiently broken now that only the stubbornly blind —therewill be some straight through the end— can ignore the cracks.

Remember, it always feels like you're too late. Bitcoin always feels too expensive. But the heavy rails are still being laid down, this is just the beginning.

You're not late and when you look 10 years from now, you'll see Bitcoin was never cheaper.

Ask me a Bitcoin question

Bitcoin News

Ammo

One of the good things about lazy enemies is they make the same tired old arguments. So many common "objections" now have well-crafted responses that can cite not just research and well-articulated opinions but also real-world examples.

Krypto News

"Crypto" can be lethal to your portfolio

Slow Death

Will Ethereum rally to make a comeback? I honestly don't care.

Fiat News

True

The macro conditions Trump is inheriting —some of which he tee'd up himself in his first term— will not be waved away with a magic wand. Team Trump will have a lot of heavy lifting to do to avoid a catastrophe.

Actually, probably more than one catastrophe.

Grabbing Rug

The rich are taking profits from their stock holdings. Are you?

I've mentioned skepticism about Nvidia's valuation several times now.

"Mark-to-market" accounting (same that Enron used), creative inventory practices, financial troubles for one of its top customers, a request for SEC protection and now problems with one of its flagship chips.

Nvidia is like one of those girls that score high in the hot/crazy matrix. Stay away from the kitchen if you don't like the heat.

Dystopian News

Every Dollar

The vehemence with which the US has sent money it doesn't have to Ukraine can be simply explained. In fact you only need one word.

Corruption.

Know too much

The man who created the prediction market which most accurately reflected Trump's final result found out the establishment was not amused.

Fact Checked

The NY Times makes RFK's point by "debunking" him.

Hopeful News

HHS

RFK becoming head of Health and Human Services is a huge deal and bodes well for the future of the country.

DOGE

Elon co-heading the Department of Government Efficiency will possibly be the wildest ride of the upcoming administration.

Not only is Elon an efficiency nut-job (if you haven't read his biography you have no idea of what levels we're talking about), he has also been on the receiving end of government agency f*ckery on countless occasions across his tenures at PayPal, Tesla and SpaceX.

Stable Genius

Proof is in the pudding. I don't understand all that Terrence Howard is saying lately —even though I've done my time with hardcore geometry nerds— but I hope he keeps pumping out real-world applications for his ideas. We need more of these kinds of nuts.

Fresh

I hope this turns out to be real, inexpensive fresh-water production out of sea water is a civilization changer.

Price News

Bitcoin Surfing

Bitcoin caught some wind and spent all of last week gliding above the Board ($74k), let's see if it catches some thermals.

Dip Fishing

We are in unknown waters, I'm not saying BTC will never be under $73k again but I am saying if you wait for $73k you may have to capitulate above $100k

Calm Chart

November is proud and green. Because this graph plotted on a logarithmic axis, it doesn't do full justice to what just happened, so also I published the linear version of this chart below this one.

Look at that beaut.

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