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11 min read Newsletter

Last call to board before Big Money

We're within spitting distance of all-time highs and Big Money is only starting to pay attention —mainly thanks to absurd levels of debt which show no signs of slowing down. It feels like the train is about to leave the station.
Last call to board before Big Money

The Bitcoin ETFs' performance has been nothing short of spectacular (by any standard).

Interestingly though, this has mostly been driven by retail, not institutions. Not to say there is zero institutional interest, but there's no strong interest yet.

Emory University just became the first university to publicly announce a Bitcoin position —we're that early— and $15M is a pittance when sized against many universities' trusts.

But there are stirrings in the world of Big Money. Microsoft is asking its shareholders to vote on whether or not to add BTC to their Balance Sheet (board recommended no).

This is a pretty huge deal, even if they decide to pass (which I believe they will).

When the world's largest Megacorps start to publicly consider stacking BTC it shifts the Overton Window —the range of topics that are permissible to discuss without fear of ridicule.

It's not out of the question the decision may have some support from Microsoft higher-ups…

and the proposal shows they're very much aware of what's happened with Microstrategy

A decisive factor may rest on the elephant in the room becoming less invisible than it used to be. I'm talking of course, of the US public debt which is huge and unlikely to shrink soon, regardless of who's president.

There is growing public acknowledgement of the ruinous trajectory of the US debt.

But the novelty is the growing recognition of Bitcoin's protective role in this environment.

From TradFi billionaires…

To tech-bro billionaires who have in the past made fun of BTC as they pushed crypto pump-and-dumps…

And even from stodgy Swiss bankers…

Because while the stock market has been on an absolute tear,

Several of the warning lights in the "Market's dashboard" are blinking red.

The Warren Buffet indicator —his prefered method to determine whether stock valuations were comparatively “cheap or expensive"— uses a Market Cap to GDP comparison and is currently saying stocks are more overvalued than ever.

And the Sahm Rule —a unemployment based indicator which identifies the onset of a recession— is now suggesting a recession is almost certain, will this be its first false positive?

Even Central Bankers are acknowledging you can't borrow your way out of a debt problem.

And have been increasing their gold holdings aggressively.

All of this leads to a greater likelihood of other Nation States (besides El Salvador) turning towards Bitcoin in some fashion —the US adopting a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve as hinted by Trump would only accelerate this.

But it's far from the only catalyst at play, given that BRICS members continue to search for alternative payment rails not controlled by the US

The bottom line is this: The Overton window for big money (private, corporate and sovereign) coming into Bitcoin is already shifting. And the pieces are in place for a big announcement to suddenly jerk Bitcoin allocation straight from the current "Acceptable" position to "Policy". If/when that happens I'd expect a sizeable chunk of Big Money will start to play catch-up and we will be off to the races.

I don't own enough Bitcoin and neither do you.

Ask me a Bitcoin question

Bitcoin News

Satoshi

A new Satoshi sculpture was just unveiled in Lugano, Switzerland. I think it's beautiful, clever and I applaud celebrating Satoshi's contribution to humanity.

Solo

Solo miners has been making noise lately

But this one was particularly interesting. Most solo miners band together in a pool with "winner takes it all" rules, because this helps increase their individual odds.

But this guy was raw-dog mining with no pool and using DATUM (a new protocol which allows you to choose your own block template), so this seems to be the first "artisanally mined" block since the days of Satoshi. Kudos to the lucky winner!

Krypto News

"Crypto" can be lethal to your portfolio

Sinple

Crypto really is this simple.

Here's a different version for the numerically inclined

Private Blockchains

There's a special category of blockchains which are not open to anyone who wants to join. Much like the "intranets" of the early internet days, they may sound good on paper but don't really work. One of the big outfits pushing these is being taken out to pasture.

Fiat News

Yield

Yields going higher after a Fed rate cut suggests the market appetite for US debt is lacking.

The blue line in the chart below shows just how unusual the situation is.

The normal relationships between rates and assets are out of kilter.

The Reverse Repo —think of it as the parking lot where banks "park" their excess liquidity is getting closer to the "fumes" level.

And the numbers published by the government swing between horror and fiction

All to say, if you're looking for signs…

The signs don't point to health

Dystopian News

Bad Citizen

As technology continues to increase the power of the surveillance state, we must stay vigilant and reject handing over our freedoms in exchange for a doughnut, free burger or a beer. This things are not walked back easily.

Hopeful News

Chips

As you may know, most of the advanced chips powering everything are produced by one company. The Taiwanese juggernaut Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC).

Their capabilities are ridiculously advanced and there is serious concern that China / Taiwan tensions could seriously hobble the global microchip supply.

This enormous risk may have finally found some mitigation as TSMC's new Arizona plant made a credible showing of its capabilities.

Redress

Long after many absurdities of the Covid response have been laid bare, some of the people directly affected by it are being compensated. Let's hope this becomes a growing trend.

On this note, Bill Gates faces criminal charges in the Netherlands for his role in the Covid vaccines. May he enjoy the fine Dutch prison food.

Price News

Higher

While I'm used to seeing BTC price in Log, I hadn't really seen in Log-Log (meaning both price and time are in log terms). There's no need to think to hard on this one, just enjoy the long-term trend

Speaking of trends, the tweet below makes a valid point that's worth considering as BTC bangs its head against the ATH.

As the price of housing suggests, CPI grossly understates the recent loss of purchasing power. $69k today is not the same as $69k in 2021.

Bitcoin Surfing

After dangling its feet from the ATH last week, Bitcoin came back to the Board ($65k) briefly and jumped back to the ATH level, will it be able to hang on?

Dip Fishing

Last week I said a trip back to $65k would be unsurprising and $60k would be surprising but not alarming, hope you caught that dip.

Same range still in play this week, US election foreplay could make for wild action

Calm Chart

Uptober looks like it will live up to its name and close green.

Published by:

₿ Coach

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