7 min read

He who panics first panics best

Whether you believe they've been lying all this time or are just waking up to reality, the result is the same: There'll be no warning lights until it's too late. Only you can save yourself.

No Debate

I found nothing particularly shocking about the US presidential debate. Joe Biden's cognitive decay has been on full public display for years now.

The charade to keep him in the white house has been nothing short of disgraceful.

The disingenuous "panic" among Democrats is hard to swallow, but it's worth paying attention to.

We get to watch the media pivot in lockstep to shift the Overton Window —the subset of ideas that are acceptable to discuss in polite company at a given time. A fascinating and revolting spectacle.

More importantly, pay attention to what they don't (and didn't) say. For example why did they sit on this story until after the debate?

And finally, make a list of those still pretending this is fine.

“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.” —George Orwell, 1984

So thanks to a big synchronized media push it's finally OK to discuss the need to replace Biden as a candidate. Great, except it may already be too late. Apparently unless he steps down willingly —which his family will not allow him to do— he's locked in place.

What does this have to do with Bitcoin?

I mention all of this, because the only thing more demented than Mr. Biden is the economy. And yes, it's obvious if you actually look but no, the media is not allowed to discuss it yet.

We're still pretending the economy is doing fine (reality is a small percentage is killing it)

While the great majority is struggling, largely because of inflation.

To expand on the tweet above, we have Scott Galloway (below) with an outstanding 8-minute rant by on what the upcoming generation is up against (in a nutshell, the older generation has skewed the board so far in their favor they've made it very hard for the younger generation to prosper). If we remember debt means borrowing money from the future, this makes perfect sense.

If those older folk —you know, the ones who actually do have savings— were more alert to the precarious position their savings are in, maybe they'd be more motivated to help.

Alas between their houses appreciating and the stock market booming they are moisturized and unconcerned, not realizing their retirements hang on the Fed keeping its promise of a "soft landing" —the chances of which, if we go by historic track record, is zero.

Over and over for decades now, the Fed has been faced with moments when it must to choose between allowing the global economy to implode under the weight of bad, excessive debt, or debase the debts away. So far, it's chosen debasement every time, blowing ever-larger bubbles.

Before we start hunting for signs of bubbles we'd do well to revisit Bob Farrell's ten market rules published 30 years ago (pay particular attention to rules 2,3 and 7):

Read this tweet with rule 2 in mind:

"Excesses in one direction will lead to an excess in the other direction"

Read this tweet with rule 3 in mind:

There are no new eras —excesses are never permanent

Finally, read these tweets with rule 7 in mind:

Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue-chip names



"But Nvidia is the key to our new, AI driven future!"
That may be the case, but that doesn't mean they're not cooking the books and you should re-read Rules 3,7 and 9

Don't take my word for it, ask Nvidia insiders.

And maybe ask hedge funds too…

So, any other red lights?

Sure, a few. Like a trickle of public calls by major analysts for those who bother to look.

As well as some insane stats from Main Street

The Bottom Line

One day you'll wake up to a financial media screaming PANIC.

You'll be vigilant on your own because you'll have no advanced warning by them and by the time they do sound the alarm it will already be too late.

Price News

Bitcoin Surfing

Bitcoin spiked down to touch the Water ($59k)but has a way to go before reaching the Board ($66k) again

Dip Fishing

After a brief and aggressive spike below $60k, BTC bounced back and forth on the $62.5k resistance before finally jumping above. We could easily see $60k again and maybe even $56k. I don't see us going lower.

Calm Chart

BTC closed June in the red, which is healthy.