Who'll wake up first?

Out of the turmoil of the past few weeks, three things caught my eye as potential catalysts for rapid BTC rise:
US Presidential Race
Trump parroting Bitcoin talking points is very significant. Not because of his conviction, understanding, moral fiber or whether we like orange-man or not. It's important because it brings Bitcoin to the national discourse at a presidential election level and draws a clear line in the sand.
The mere fact he's repeatedly made the distinction of specifically mentioning Bitcoin and not just burying it under "crypto" is a win, as was his defense of mining as an industry after a roundtable meeting with US miners.
We had a very good meeting today. 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/epp3fkUTi5
— Brian Morgenstern (@MorgensternNJ) June 12, 2024
The main contender for the next US presidency is posturing as pro-Bitcoin and pro-mining. This sends a message to every politician that they'll soon have to decide which side of the line they're on —which means they'll need to try and figure out what Bitcoin is all about.
You hear that sound? That's the sound of thousands of foreign policy and intelligence analysts in every country around the world scurrying to produce reports outlining the geopolitical ramifications of America's future bitcoin policy and how to respond. The domino has tipped.
— David Bailey🇵🇷 $0.65mm/btc is the floor (@DavidFBailey) June 12, 2024
The political benefits the Biden camp has accrued for being anti-Bitcoin (essentially following Liz Warren's line) are far from obvious. Will team Biden —which has resisted pivoting from its anti-crypto stance— finally tap out?
BIDEN ADMIN TO ATTEND BITCOIN ROUNDTABLE WITH KEY CONGRESSIONAL OFFICIALS IN DC
— Dylan LeClair 🟠 (@DylanLeClair_) June 15, 2024
‘The primary objective of this meeting is to strategize on how to keep "Bitcoin and blockchain innovation in the United States.”’
get it yet? https://t.co/AOouleHgZL
The mere end of political hostility towards Bitcoin would be a huge step forward. Active support from the highest levels of government and the embrace of Bitcoin as part of America's future—while undoubtedly a two-edged sword— would be unfathomably bullish.
I can’t put into words how bullish I am right now. I thought there would be stepping stones from El Salvador to nation state adoption. We’re inches away from full send mode in the world’s most powerful and wealthy country. When America goes hard, every nation will follow. Moon.
— David Bailey🇵🇷 $0.65mm/btc is the floor (@DavidFBailey) June 11, 2024
The US Economy
At least until elections, every effort will be made to continue gaslighting the public regarding the health and viability of the US president economy.
"I don't think anyone knows why people are not as happy about the economy as they might be"
— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) June 12, 2024
— Fed Chair Jerome Powell
June 12, 2024
Maybe because wages are falling behind inflation, full time jobs are turning into part time jobs and rent/housing is 4x higher than CPI claims. pic.twitter.com/FHaj7hAuDI
Reality suggests otherwise, both at the consumer level
Auto insurance rates in the US have increased by 42% over the past 2 years.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) June 17, 2024
That's the biggest 2-year spike since 1977, per Charlie Bilello.
and the government level.
Powell & Co. have now lost $175 billion, making the executives from Enron, SVB, Lehman, and Washington Mutual all look like geniuses: pic.twitter.com/qlx9cSZiao
— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) June 13, 2024
Ungodly amounts of (still uncapped) US debt —already unpayable by conventional math— continue to grow at an accelerating rapid pace.
The US government is spending as if we are in a crisis:
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 10, 2024
US government expenditures as % of GDP just hit 43%, matching levels seen during the 2008 Financial Crisis.
To put this into perspective, spending as a % of GDP is just 1% below World War 2 levels.
Even at the peak of… pic.twitter.com/h0lM7PRRZn
The situation is bad enough the IMF has issued a warning to the US on the perils of propping up the economy through debt.
IMF warns US on ballooning fiscal burden. "The temptation to finance all spending through borrowing really is something that countries should avoid". https://t.co/mgGFwTrvZ4
— HasPop.eu (@HasPopEU) June 10, 2024
Those with assets are trying to escape inflation by plowing into the stock market —oblivious to the fact it's propped up by 7 stocks and over 1/3 of its gains this year have been thanks to a single stock.
DISCONNECT IS HISTORIC:
— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) June 17, 2024
Magnificent 7 stocks have rallied by 35% year-to-date driven by Nvidia's 166% gain.
At the same time, the S&P 500 is up by 14% and S&P 500 Equal Weighted index by only 3%.
How is this strong market when only a few stocks drive the entire performance? pic.twitter.com/csgMtMCw7s
Capital gains taxes from the stock market are a significant source of tax revenue for the government, so it's not in their interest to crash the market.
If something should threaten the stock market —like say a bank crisis— the US government will likely "print liquidity" in obscene amounts to contain the crisis.
The FED trying to keep the US Dollar from hyper-inflating while managing USD/JPY collapse, CRE crisis, and $573B in unrealized Bank losses all while 20% of global oil trade was settled outside of USD during 2023…..#bitcoin
— 🏔Adam O🏔 (@denverbitcoin) June 8, 2024
pic.twitter.com/AM03AuBTfz
This may be bullish for some stocks, it will definitely be bullish for gold and bitcoin.
Escaping the USD Chokehold
There was a lot of noise about the Saudis "declining to renew the petrodollar agreement" recently. Regardless of whether it's factually true, the reality is Saudi Arabia is one of many countries actively working on having payment rails that are not controlled by the US.
NEW: BIS announces Project mBridge has reached the MVP stage.
— Bitcoin News (@BitcoinNewsCom) June 6, 2024
mBridge is a multi-central bank digital currency (CBDC) platform for instant cross-border payments 😮
Started in 2021, it involves central banks from 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇨🇳 China, 🇦🇪 UAE, and now includes 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia. pic.twitter.com/FqzTCojNGQ
In addition to payment rails, Central Banks looking for Treasury Reserve assets that don't leave them at the mercy of the USA. This has led to some an explosion in gold purchases by Central Banks.
Central banks have bought so much gold that it’s now their #2 currency holding after the US dollar. Since the 2008 crisis, central banks have bought more than 3,000 tons of gold — 1 in 8 ounces mined worldwide.
— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) June 17, 2024
Central bankers have already admitted they’re buying gold as… https://t.co/5OjStPvYoO
It takes a while to be able to recognize Bitcoin as superior to gold, but once you see it you can't unsee it, and some of them are already seeing it.
🇨🇳 $7 Trillion world’s largest bank, ICBC says #Bitcoin is much better than Gold.
— Vivek⚡️ (@Vivek4real_) June 11, 2024
Are you paying attention? 👀 pic.twitter.com/lshnF1W9Xb
I don't know what the catalust will be or who'll wake up to Bitcoin first, the BRICs or the USA-led trading block. I do know it's just a mater of time.

Price News
Bitcoin Surfing
Bitcoin's being playing close top the Board ($66.4k) for the past couple of weeks. Breaking through $69k only to come back down.

Dip Fishing
BTC has been pretty range-bound between the $65k support and the $$73k resistance. We may dip all the way to $60k if something nasty happens, but I'd be surprised if we went lower.

Calm Chart
June looking modestly red, it'd be good for it to close red. Consolidation now could would give BTC more leeway going forward.

