6 min read

Who'll wake up first?

There are at least 3 alarm clocks ticking away, any one of them going off could trigger a massive bull run.
Who'll wake up first?

Out of the turmoil of the past few weeks, three things caught my eye as potential catalysts for rapid BTC rise:

US Presidential Race

Trump parroting Bitcoin talking points is very significant. Not because of his conviction, understanding, moral fiber or whether we like orange-man or not. It's important because it brings Bitcoin to the national discourse at a presidential election level and draws a clear line in the sand.

The mere fact he's repeatedly made the distinction of specifically mentioning Bitcoin and not just burying it under "crypto" is a win, as was his defense of mining as an industry after a roundtable meeting with US miners.

The main contender for the next US presidency is posturing as pro-Bitcoin and pro-mining. This sends a message to every politician that they'll soon have to decide which side of the line they're on —which means they'll need to try and figure out what Bitcoin is all about.

The political benefits the Biden camp has accrued for being anti-Bitcoin (essentially following Liz Warren's line) are far from obvious. Will team Biden —which has resisted pivoting from its anti-crypto stance— finally tap out?

The mere end of political hostility towards Bitcoin would be a huge step forward. Active support from the highest levels of government and the embrace of Bitcoin as part of America's future—while undoubtedly a two-edged sword— would be unfathomably bullish.

The US Economy

At least until elections, every effort will be made to continue gaslighting the public regarding the health and viability of the US president economy.

Reality suggests otherwise, both at the consumer level

and the government level.

Ungodly amounts of (still uncapped) US debt —already unpayable by conventional math— continue to grow at an accelerating rapid pace.

The situation is bad enough the IMF has issued a warning to the US on the perils of propping up the economy through debt.

Those with assets are trying to escape inflation by plowing into the stock market —oblivious to the fact it's propped up by 7 stocks and over 1/3 of its gains this year have been thanks to a single stock.

Capital gains taxes from the stock market are a significant source of tax revenue for the government, so it's not in their interest to crash the market.

If something should threaten the stock market —like say a bank crisis— the US government will likely "print liquidity" in obscene amounts to contain the crisis.

This may be bullish for some stocks, it will definitely be bullish for gold and bitcoin.

Escaping the USD Chokehold

There was a lot of noise about the Saudis "declining to renew the petrodollar agreement" recently. Regardless of whether it's factually true, the reality is Saudi Arabia is one of many countries actively working on having payment rails that are not controlled by the US.

In addition to payment rails, Central Banks looking for Treasury Reserve assets that don't leave them at the mercy of the USA. This has led to some an explosion in gold purchases by Central Banks.

It takes a while to be able to recognize Bitcoin as superior to gold, but once you see it you can't unsee it, and some of them are already seeing it.

I don't know what the catalust will be or who'll wake up to Bitcoin first, the BRICs or the USA-led trading block. I do know it's just a mater of time.

Price News

Bitcoin Surfing

Bitcoin's being playing close top the Board ($66.4k) for the past couple of weeks. Breaking through $69k only to come back down.

Dip Fishing

BTC has been pretty range-bound between the $65k support and the $$73k resistance. We may dip all the way to $60k if something nasty happens, but I'd be surprised if we went lower.

Calm Chart

June looking modestly red, it'd be good for it to close red. Consolidation now could would give BTC more leeway going forward.