2024.08 - Too Quiet?

IMHO

The world sleeps as Bitcoin keeps creeping upward.

Some embattled economies have funny ideas about how to solve their Bitcoin exchange problem.

Meanwhile, the stock market continues to rip to all-time highs. Reality be damned. When you're inside a bubble, it can be hard to tell whether an asset is "cheap" or "expensive" because these are relative terms. Cheap / expensive compared to WHAT?

There are a few long-standing metrics for the stock market which could come in handy.

The Buffet indicator —which compares the stock market with the GDP— suggests the market is, at present, not just expensive but the most expensive it's ever been.

The Risk Premium indicator —which looks at the reward of taking on risk with stocks vs the "risk-free Bond market— also suggests the market is not paying you enough for risk.

Of course, bonds have been far from risk-free lately, even when compared to the worst-timed Bitcoin purchase of all time.

Lyn Alden

If some unlucky person bought bitcoin right at the very top of the cycle in 2021, they’re now down less than if they had bought US Treasuries at that moment instead. That’s how awful bonds have been.

One would think that when several indicators point in the same direction it may be worth it to pay attention. But the problem with raging bull market bubbles is dealing with soul-crushing FOMO when sitting in the sidelines as the names you like continue to rip. And if you bought the right 10 stocks in 2002 / 2003 you are sitting very pretty indeed.

It would be suicidal to try and time the me market however, the froth will continue until it stops, there's no telling how high it may go. Always remember:

Markets can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

In the meantime, Bitcoin critics are really struggling to come up with good material.

Gary thinks there are no Valuation models for Bitcoin (which is incorrect) and proceeds to say Gold is valuable because it can be used in jewelry and electronics (sigh).

Fiancelot wonders what would happen if computers suddenly became bad at basic math.

And Andrew Sorkin —despite having been reporting on Bitcoin for years now— still thinks a store of value would be a stablecoin.

They're not sending their best, I hope you're making the most of this opportunity.

Bitcoin News

Backing Down

It seems the Energy Administration is backing down from its plan to heavily survey miners. Congratulations to everyone that fought this.

1%

Microstrategy keeps staking relentlessly. 17,000 BTC to go and they'll own a full 1% of the supply

Other companies are stacking, some are relative newcomers. It will be interesting to learn which (if any) corporations have been buying the ETF —we assume this will be disclosed next quarter.

While the ETFs may be outpacing Microstrategy in the accumulation game, one should not sneeze at the Gigachad's lead when it comes to corporate stacking. Will any one corporation ever catch up?

Fees Down

BTC fees rise and fall with demand for blockspace. It's that simple.

Krypto News

"Crypto" can be lethal to your portfolio

Frens

Seems SBF is making new friends. Maybe they'll talk him into some pushups.

Fiat News

Tails

A recent 20Y bond auction had the biggest-ever tail (demand was lower than anticipated). If this becomes a trend it will spell serious trouble considering the massive amounts of debt the US Government intends to issue.

Indentured

US Household debt is at record levels with an eye-watering average of $400,000 per household.

Consequently, interest payments are also at All-Time Highs. I find the steepness of the climb to be particularly worrisome.

Jamie's First Dump

For the first time in his 18 year tenure, Jamie Dimon sold some of his JPM stocks. I wonder what he's buying, my bet is on Solana :-D

CRE

No relief in sight for US Commercial Real Estate, which means stress for small banks.

Dystopian News

Nine

There's a sobering quote by Alfred Henry Lewis in the tweet below. Perhaps you could argue the number, but the concerning point remains.

PANIC

Will Chocolate become the new Bitcoin? Better stash away some Hershey's.

No Free Pass

No matter who the leader of a country is, dissidents dying in custody is a horrible and concerning development.

Stay Warm

It was recently announced the infamous Lord Jacob Rothschild, has died at 87. (apparently he passed one week ago). Unsurprisingly, Twitter is having a field day with the death one of the elders of what many consider an extraordinarily sinister banking family, named in more conspiracies than you can shake a stick at.

Go Woke

Google's AI Gemini gifted the world an absolute masterclass of how not to train an AI last week.

And make no mistake, these over-the-top results were exactly what they wanted to achieve directionally.

In overplaying their hand they made their (already obvious) agenda transparent, a big concern is that they will be increasingly more devious going forward.

Why would Google want this?

We'd need to ask the CIA who has been filling a disproportionate number of leadership roles at Google.

Speechless

Aaron Bushnell, an active-duty(?) member of the US Air Force self-immolated in front of the Israeli Embassy in Washington, protesting the situation in Gaza, he said: “I will no longer be complicit in genocide”. As some people rushed to extinguish his flames, the footage clearly shows a guard from the Israeli embassy training an unwavering gun at Bushnell.

Price News

Bitcoin Surfing

Bitcoin managed to remain aloft near the $52k level last week and is starting the last week of February with a new gust upwards. The Board ($46.7k) is climbing up to provide some support.

Dip Fishing

After hanging around the $52k mark (prob. need to add a new support line, huh?), Bitcoin jumped straight past $53k today.

Calm Chart

February on schedule to close proudly green. Will march set a new, historic record for 7 Green candles in a row?