8 min read

2023.41 - Receding

As you're bombarded with spin trying to pass off as news, don't forget to stay alert to the signs around you and take the steps to protect yourself from what they're not telling you.
Bitcoin surfboard on a pristine beach


Imagine yourself in a pristine, gorgeous beach. Nobody around except for the local dude who rents out umbrellas and beach chairs.

You sit back on your chair and close your eyes to listen to the pounding surf. It's a perfect day. The last couple of years have been intense and you deserve a little relaxation.

You start daydreaming but suddenly notice you don't hear the waves anymore.

You sit up and see the water line —which was just a few steps away— has receded noticeably. Rocks, seashells and starfish now lay exposed in the sand.

You know what you should do, right?

In the off-chance you don't know receding waters suggest a tsunami is coming and you should get your butt to high ground immediately.

As you look at the news I'd suggest you ask yourself "are the waters receding?"

For example, is debt growing at an unsustainable pace?

are they trying to gaslight me into believing the economy is fine?

or into believing a recession would be "safe and effective"?

You should also assess whether you're in "high ground". Would you be OK if banking in your country shut down for a few days?

Would you also be OK if your country starts "blocking the exits"?

Billionaire Paul Tudor Jones (who can probably see the waters receding) says he likes Bitcoin here, suggests you buy more.

Bitcoin News

Not The Same

Fidelity has long been supportive of Bitcoin, they just re-issued their Bitcoin First report —in which they make it clear how Bitcoin is in its own category when it comes to "crypto"— and it's absolutely worth a read.


The Bank of International Settlements (BIS) is obsessed with tracking everyone's financial transactions.

Atlas can use on-chain data and off-chain data to identify who controls what addresses.

They also talk about Coinjoins (BIS doesn't like them), so it might be a good idea to decide if you want to run some before they try to ban them (to be clear they can't stop you from Coinjoining, but they can declare it illegal)

If you want to learn more about CoinJoins this site is a great resource:

Coinjoins - Learn about bitcoin collaborative transactions
Reclaim your privacy with coinjoins. Learn about bitcoin collaborative transactions.


David Marcus is the ex-president of PayPal and was at the head of the defunct Libra —a Facebook project which sought to launch a global stablecoin.

He says he'll spend the rest of his life building on Bitcoin and Lightning, oh and he also said Mark Zuckerberg "appreciates" Bitcoin.


Someone misreported that the Blackrock ETF had been approved, hilarity ensued… If it's any consolation, we can say the ETF is not priced in.

"Crypto" News

The jokes often write themselves

SBF Trial

Caroline's testimony included a ~$100 Million bribe to Chinese officials —done despite warnings that this would backfire— selling their customers' Bitcoin illegally to supress its price, attempts to scam Saudi investors and bring down enforcement action on rival Binance, in the hopes of absorbing their customer base —which they needed badly to cover the huge hole in their balance sheet.

They also had 7 different versions of their balance sheet to choose from when sending info to regulators and tried to blame Caroline for the FTX meltdown. An absolute prince of a man. Oh, and his lawyers are begging the judge to let him have his adderal before testifying. This is a guy who wanted to become president of the USA. Seems qualified to me.

Top off their absolute lack of ethics with wild incompetence


Both Genesis and Grayscal halted withdrawals. Not your keys not your coins.

Fiat News

Are They High?

The stock market just keeps on trucking (closed up this week), which is not great for bonds. Ideally both the stock market and the dollar should get some of the wind knocked out of their sails to stimulate appetite for bonds. This hasn't quite happened.

Last week The Fed said —seven times — they believe they've hiked rates enough.

Maybe they were spooked by last week's poor showing at the bond auction?

Weak bond auctions are a concerning development. The Fed needs to do all it can to make sure the market's appetite for US Treasuries is enough to stomach the enormous amount of debt it needs to unload on them.

Particularly now that foreign appetite for US debt is not keeping up with new supply.


Argentina's inflation and interest-rates are simply eye-watering. This is their 6th hike this year

Chinese Wall

Following in real estate giant EverGrande's footsteps, Chinese real estate firm Country Garden defaulted on its debt , sparking fears of bank collapses.

Some employed ingenious solutions to quell customers' fears.


The rating quality of outstanding debt is dropping fast

Clerical Error

Seems Microsoft may have slightly underpaid their taxes. but the IRS is really interested in those $600 you Venmo'd

Dystopian News


X is coming under EU scrutiny for wrongthink.

EU warns Elon Musk that his platform is being used for illegal disinformation, violating the new Digital Services Act.

Italy's Lega Nord minced no words

Price News

Bitcoin SurfingBitcoin was struggling to stay above Bedrock until the proce was goosed by this morning's fake news regarding the BlackRock ETF approval. We'll see where it lands once the dust settles

Dip Fishing

BTC breached the $27k support and was regaining it when the fake news propelled it above $29k, it's in the process of settling back now.

Calm Chart

Outside of the big fake spike, no big price action so far this month.