2023.41 - Receding
IMHO
Imagine yourself in a pristine, gorgeous beach. Nobody around except for the local dude who rents out umbrellas and beach chairs.
You sit back on your chair and close your eyes to listen to the pounding surf. It's a perfect day. The last couple of years have been intense and you deserve a little relaxation.
You start daydreaming but suddenly notice you don't hear the waves anymore.
You sit up and see the water line —which was just a few steps away— has receded noticeably. Rocks, seashells and starfish now lay exposed in the sand.
You know what you should do, right?
In the off-chance you don't know receding waters suggest a tsunami is coming and you should get your butt to high ground immediately.
As you look at the news I'd suggest you ask yourself "are the waters receding?"
For example, is debt growing at an unsustainable pace?
How it started vs How it's going 😨
— Eric Podwojski 🟠 (@epodrulz) October 16, 2023
Yes, you read that right; 2 trillion dollars of debt added in less than ONE year.
I would not be surprised if $3 trillion or more is added over the next year.
To protect yourself against debasement, buy #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/KRxFjgznVo
are they trying to gaslight me into believing the economy is fine?
CPI including food, energy, shelter, and used cars https://t.co/k7ej0hAemp pic.twitter.com/LkKjtFLOIi
— Brady Swenson (@CitizenBitcoin) October 12, 2023
or into believing a recession would be "safe and effective"?
New Media Narrative: Recession is better than a soft landing 🤡🌎
— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) October 14, 2023
They know a recession is coming, so it is time to train you into believing that is a good thing. pic.twitter.com/sIo2tfukkm
You should also assess whether you're in "high ground". Would you be OK if banking in your country shut down for a few days?
Over a million people in Japan have their bank accounts frozen since yesterday
— Crypto Tea (@CryptoTea_) October 11, 2023
11 of the largest banks in Japan are not working, including JP Morgan Chase
Bitcoin is still online pic.twitter.com/HAIrhYsEWM
Would you also be OK if your country starts "blocking the exits"?
It’s getting harder to buy bitcoin in the UK it seems. https://t.co/dkWK9Aek2x
— ck (@ck_SNARKs) October 15, 2023
Billionaire Paul Tudor Jones (who can probably see the waters receding) says he likes Bitcoin here, suggests you buy more.
Paul T. Jones is worth $8,100,000,000 and pioneered the modern hedge fund industry.
— Documenting ₿itcoin 📄 (@DocumentingBTC) October 10, 2023
He says, “I think #bitcoin takes on a larger percentage of your portfolio. I like #bitcoin” pic.twitter.com/cn8Xtgg3kp
Bitcoin News
Not The Same
Fidelity has long been supportive of Bitcoin, they just re-issued their Bitcoin First report —in which they make it clear how Bitcoin is in its own category when it comes to "crypto"— and it's absolutely worth a read.
Very good read from Fidelity, which manages over $4.5 Trillion in assets.
— Mark Harvey (@thepowerfulHRV) October 11, 2023
I would recommend it as a first read for anyone generally curious but skeptical about #Bitcoin.
Since Fidelity likely already manages part of their retirement savings, they would feel reassured knowing… pic.twitter.com/AOjrKseoHU
Stalker
The Bank of International Settlements (BIS) is obsessed with tracking everyone's financial transactions.
Atlas can use on-chain data and off-chain data to identify who controls what addresses.
They also talk about Coinjoins (BIS doesn't like them), so it might be a good idea to decide if you want to run some before they try to ban them (to be clear they can't stop you from Coinjoining, but they can declare it illegal)
Let me tell you about a concerning new pilot program launched by the BIS, Eurosystem, De Nederlandsche Bank, and the Deutsche Bundesbank last week - Project Atlas.
— Sam Callahan (@samcallah) October 11, 2023
Project Atlas is a Proof of Concept for surveilling the international flows of Bitcoin and all crypto-assets.… pic.twitter.com/K4FJsI16EW
If you want to learn more about CoinJoins this site is a great resource:
Convert
David Marcus is the ex-president of PayPal and was at the head of the defunct Libra —a Facebook project which sought to launch a global stablecoin.
He says he'll spend the rest of his life building on Bitcoin and Lightning, oh and he also said Mark Zuckerberg "appreciates" Bitcoin.
This isn’t just one of us cultists saying “bitcoin is the only neutral internet money there will ever be.” It’s the guy who built Libra (Diem) for Facebook (Meta).
— Troy Cross (@thetrocro) October 11, 2023
@davidmarcus’ lesson will be learned gradually, the hard way… or easily, by listening to his experience. https://t.co/7INan4cQ2e
Sike
Someone misreported that the Blackrock ETF had been approved, hilarity ensued… If it's any consolation, we can say the ETF is not priced in.
JUST IN: $65 million $BTC liquidated within minutes following fake reports that BlackRock's Spot #Bitcoin ETF was approved. pic.twitter.com/Uxb6pCfhdu
— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) October 16, 2023
"Crypto" News
The jokes often write themselves
SBF Trial
Caroline's testimony included a ~$100 Million bribe to Chinese officials —done despite warnings that this would backfire— selling their customers' Bitcoin illegally to supress its price, attempts to scam Saudi investors and bring down enforcement action on rival Binance, in the hopes of absorbing their customer base —which they needed badly to cover the huge hole in their balance sheet.
They also had 7 different versions of their balance sheet to choose from when sending info to regulators and tried to blame Caroline for the FTX meltdown. An absolute prince of a man. Oh, and his lawyers are begging the judge to let him have his adderal before testifying. This is a guy who wanted to become president of the USA. Seems qualified to me.
Alameda was insolvent even during the bull market.
— Joe Burnett (🔑)³ (@IIICapital) October 11, 2023
It appears they used (or "borrowed") FTX customer #bitcoin and other customer assets to buy "Sam coins" (FTT, Solana, and Serum).
Without this fake sell pressure, maybe bitcoin would have hit $100,000 in 2021. pic.twitter.com/tCh6gkAq23
Top off their absolute lack of ethics with wild incompetence
Former Alameda engineer Aditya Baradwaj reveals the company lost $190 million due to three security incidents. Traders lost $100 million in DeFi by clicking fake links; $40 million was lost on a liquidity farming; and $50 million was lost after a company's plain text key file was…
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) October 12, 2023
Halt
Both Genesis and Grayscal halted withdrawals. Not your keys not your coins.
Wow. Grayscale halting all withdrawals as well https://t.co/RUS4Mqa9ya
— David Bailey🇵🇷 redeemGBTC.com (@DavidFBailey) October 12, 2023
Fiat News
Are They High?
The stock market just keeps on trucking (closed up this week), which is not great for bonds. Ideally both the stock market and the dollar should get some of the wind knocked out of their sails to stimulate appetite for bonds. This hasn't quite happened.
In the last 24 hours:
— Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) October 10, 2023
- Mortgage rates hit +8.09%
- Credit card interest rate hits record high
- Car loan interest rate hits highest since 2001
- Oil prices jump highest in 6 months
- China planning +$137 billion stimulus
- War continues on in Israel
But guess what?
Stocks are…
Last week The Fed said —seven times — they believe they've hiked rates enough.
FED’S HARKER: FED IS LIKELY TO BE DONE WITH RATE HIKES, SUPPORTS HIGHER FOR LONGER INTEREST RATE STANCE; CAN'T SAY FOR HOW LONG RATES WILL NEED TO REMAIN HIGH
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 13, 2023
Maybe they were spooked by last week's poor showing at the bond auction?
Weak bond auctions are a concerning development. The Fed needs to do all it can to make sure the market's appetite for US Treasuries is enough to stomach the enormous amount of debt it needs to unload on them.
Particularly now that foreign appetite for US debt is not keeping up with new supply.
US Debt: supply vs demand
— Matthew Pines (@matthew_pines) October 15, 2023
When the dotted line goes up faster than the black line, domestic buyers or the Fed have to step up… or else…
(Chart from the inestimable @Brad_Setser) pic.twitter.com/3RA00e4UKB
Crying
Argentina's inflation and interest-rates are simply eye-watering. This is their 6th hike this year
JUST IN : 🇦🇷 Argentina's central bank raises interest rates to 133%. 👀 pic.twitter.com/7kZW5VWLRC
— Bitcoin News (@BitcoinNewsCom) October 13, 2023
Chinese Wall
Following in real estate giant EverGrande's footsteps, Chinese real estate firm Country Garden defaulted on its debt , sparking fears of bank collapses.
BREAKING: 🇨🇳 Chinese real estate giant Country Garden has defaulted on its debt - New York Times 👀 pic.twitter.com/SjJyOPU8HT
— Radar🚨 (@RadarHits) October 11, 2023
Some employed ingenious solutions to quell customers' fears.
JUST IN: Concerns of an Evergrande bankruptcy lead to a small-scale bank run in 🇨🇳 China 👀
— Bitcoin News (@BitcoinNewsCom) October 14, 2023
In an effort to calm depositors, a local lender of Evergrande showcases a formidable "cash wall." 😮 pic.twitter.com/Yqp9v9PViy
Junk
The rating quality of outstanding debt is dropping fast
🚨Global bond market warning.
— Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) October 12, 2023
Junk-rated debt now exceeds top-rated AAA debt for the first time in history, per Fitch.
AAA had previously always been the largest category.
Not anymore.
AAA have fallen to 6% of total debt outstanding, down from +40%.
Everything is fine. pic.twitter.com/eIOV1RjRB2
Clerical Error
Seems Microsoft may have slightly underpaid their taxes. but the IRS is really interested in those $600 you Venmo'd
The IRS has stated that from 2004 to 2013, Microsoft, $MSFT, underpaid its taxes by $28.9 billion.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) October 11, 2023
Dystopian News
Censored
X is coming under EU scrutiny for wrongthink.
EU warns Elon Musk that his platform is being used for illegal disinformation, violating the new Digital Services Act.
Italy's Lega Nord minced no words
Statement by Lega Nord, a member of Italy’s gov coalition, about X and EU @elonmusk pic.twitter.com/IWOoiDeKJy
— Andrea Stroppa 🐺 Claudius Nero's Legion 🐺 (@andst7) October 11, 2023
Price News
Bitcoin SurfingBitcoin was struggling to stay above Bedrock until the proce was goosed by this morning's fake news regarding the BlackRock ETF approval. We'll see where it lands once the dust settles
Dip Fishing
BTC breached the $27k support and was regaining it when the fake news propelled it above $29k, it's in the process of settling back now.
Calm Chart
Outside of the big fake spike, no big price action so far this month.
