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10 min read Newsletter

2023.04 - Goldilocks

TLDR: The mainstream media is pushing a "Goldilocks" narrative where inflation is under control and the economy is healthy despite higher rates. If you buy it I have a bridge for you.
2023.04 - Goldilocks

IMHO

The latest GDP "blowout" numbers suggest the economy is booming. Is it?

The media gushed over the "Goldilocks" economy with inflation cooling and the stock market raging.

Has a recession truly been avoided or is this simply one more round in an engineered game of diminishing returns?

The short answer is the government is taking on increasingly ridiculous amounts of debt in order to spend enough to make the economy look healthy on paper.

Peter St. Onge does a great recap:

As always, the question is "who's going to pay for all of this?" Who will absorb all this debt?

The thing you want to be on the lookout for is this: When they are running out of clever, stealthy ways to massage the numbers, The Fed will just print to buy the debt.

Is this happening now?

Not yet, not in size. For the moment they still have "buffers" like the Reverse Repo, although at the current rate it looks like that will be emptied by March.

As far as the market absorbing the debt it, will there be enough appetite? The latest auction was not exactly warm and fuzzy…

The lack of appetite may be exacerbated by China's (considerable) economic diffculties. One of the ways it can defend its economy is by selling US-denominated assets, including US Treasuries

All to say, I don't buy the goldilocks narrative. They'll do their best to keep pushing it through the election but I'm not confident they'll have the ammo to back it up.

Bitcoin News

ETFs

Despite a highly successful launch the mainstreammedia has been dismissive about the BTC ETFs.

Two weeks after their launch, it seems the sell pressure from Grayscale is decreasing.

There were several interesting theories around the outflows from Grayscale

But at the end of the day, the reality of a finite supply will assert itself once the "low-hanging fruit" has been picked.

It's important to consider the real marketing push has not even started yet.

Oh, and Google is allowing BTC ETF ads now.

There are growing rumors Charles Schwab could enter the ETF game

And China will also be launching a Bitcoin ETF later this year.

This is all incredibly bullish medium term.

Long Road

Years ago, the US Government seized a ton of Bitcoin associated with a a dark market called the Silk Road. They have announced they're preparing to finally sell this stash.

Stealthy

Swan has revealed they are now in the mining business, standing up a surprising 1% of the network's hashing rate (over 4 Exahash). Hat is off to them.

Tesla

Tesla revealed it's been hodling its Bitcoin all this time

Go Phish

Trezor's email was hacked and phising emails went out trying to get users to reveal their seed phrases. NEVER respond to emails like this

Faketoshi

Every few years a scammer claims that he is Satoshi. One of the most egregious charlatans along this vein is a man called Craig Wright "Faketoshi". He's been called out by the community countless times but a few years back he singled out Peter McCormack and twitter nym "Hodlonaut" for legal action.

Backed by the deep pockets of online-gambling's Calvin Ayre, he tied up Peter and Hodlonaut in expensive litigation which threatened to ruin them. After embarassing himself in court on multiple ocassions, he has finally lost his court case.

Krypto News

"Crypto" can be lethal to your portfolio

Careful

There are malicious apps preying on your Bitcoin wallets. Always check (and verify) you are downloading original versions from their official sites.

Fiat News

ATH

The stock market is ripping.

Or is it just the "Magnificent 7"?

Fiction

The "strong job market"? Doesn't ring true for me. What do you see?

The Tech industry is cutting hard, as is Media. But hey, their numbers next quarter will probably outperform, so all good right? Who needs a job if we have a ripping stock market?

Distressing

The commercial Real Estate market keeps making worrisome noises

And speaking of Real Estate, Chinese giant Evergrande is being forced to liquidate.

Golden

This chart offers a fascinating look at the process of debt taking gold's place as the monetary base layer. The consequences of having a base money that can be printed at will are still lost on most people. It will be a bitter lesson for those who understand it late.

Shocking

Paypal hyped up a lackluster announcement, the market was not amused.

Fountain of Youth

Apparently, the key to living forever is being a director in a shell company.

Dystopian News

Lone Star Rebellion

Texas has begged to disagree with the Federal Government on the matter of border protection and 25 states are in agreement. Stock up on popcorn…

Boeing Boeing

Some of this is surely a decline in proper maintenance, but the recent string of safety failures on Boeing aircraft is alarming.

Price News

BTC Surfing

More sideways action, but the Board ($42k) is providing support.

Dip Fishing

After a quick trip down, price bounced back above $42k. A revisit to $38k is not out of the question but I'm not holding my breath.

Calm Chart

January looing like it'll close modestly green.

Published by:

₿ Coach

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